The Open Championship begins this week at Royal Troon, so we ranked the top 50 players in the field based on their chances of winning.
The world’s best players have descended upon Royal Troon for The 152nd Open Championship, the final major of the season. This course last hosted golf’s oldest major in 2016, when Henrik Stenson fended off Phil Mickelson in a historic duel for the ages.
Stenson prevailed at 20-under-par that year, an Open record, while Mickelson finished three strokes behind at 17-under. Remarkably, the third-place finisher, J.B. Holmes, posted a 6-under-par score, 13 strokes back of Stenson. Only 17 players finished under par that week, a testament to Troon’s difficulty and how well Stenson and Mickelson played.
This week may not see scores that low, as the forecast calls for inclement weather on Thursday and Friday. But regardless of what the weather does, it all comes down to the wind, which plays a massive role at Royal Troon as it sits along the Firth of Clyde.
So, to help break down the tournament, we ranked the top 50 players in this week’s field, ranked by their chances of winning the Claret Jug:
Ah, the curious case of Jordan Spieth, the man with an otherworldly short game who won the 2017 Open Championship at Royal Birkdale. But he has looked like anything but a major championship contender in 2024, missing the cut at the Masters and tying for 43rd and 41st at the PGA Championship and U.S. Open, respectively. His iron play has been an issue lately, which explains why he missed the cut at last week’s Genesis Scottish Open. But his putter let him down, too.
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Photo by Charlie Crowhurst/R&A via Getty Images
Harris English had a solid start to the season, posting four straight top-25 finishes in February and March. But the former Georgia Bulldog has struggled since then, recording only two top 25s, which, funny enough, came at Augusta and Valhalla.
Thomas Detry has played well in both major championship starts this season, tying for fourth at Valhalla and 14th at the U.S. Open. He also tied for 13th at Royal Liverpool at The Open a year ago, as he had a well-rounded performance that week. Detry is also a terrific putter and could be a great pick to finish in the top 10 at Royal Troon.
Adam Hadwin last made the cut at The Open in 2019 and tied for 57th at Royal Portrush. He does not have the best record in the British Isles, as evidenced by his recent T-34 at the Genesis Scottish Open. But the Canadian is a solid putter, which always helps.
Tom Hoge, one of the best ball strikers on the PGA Tour, has had an up-and-down stretch as of late. He missed the cut at the U.S. Open, tied for third at the Travelers, and then failed to make the weekend at the Genesis Scottish Open. Hoge missed the cut in both of his Open appearances.
After a poor weekend on the greens at Valhalla, Si Woo Kim has rallied to make five straight cuts, with his best finish being a T-15 at the Memorial. Kim does everything well from tee to green, but putting has been his downfall this season. He missed the cut at Hoylake last year.
The South African withdrew during the second round of the Genesis Scottish Open due to an undisclosed injury, which should cause some concern. But the latest word is that he will play this week at Royal Troon. Before his WD, he made four consecutive cuts, which included a solo fourth finish at the Memorial and a T-32 at the U.S. Open.
J.T. Poston ranks 10th on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy percentage, which helps explain why he has made five straight cuts. Poston is also a solid putter, so if he can hit his approaches closer to the hole, he could be a longshot contender this week.
Dean Burmester will play in his third straight major championship at Royal Troon after tying for 12th at Valhalla and finishing in solo 69th at Pinehurst No. 2. He did not qualify for last year’s Open at Royal Liverpool but did so in 2021 and 2022, finishing T-40 and T-11, respectively. Burmester can hit the ball a mile, but the question around the LIV golfer revolves around his accuracy and short game.
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Photo by Angel Martinez/Getty Images
Byeong Hun An is one of the longest hitters on the PGA Tour, but he has struggled to keep it in play lately. Two missed cuts at the U.S. Open and the Genesis Scottish Open have An looking to bounce back in a big way at Royal Troon.
A poor week at the Genesis Scottish Open has Sepp Straka trending downward, but he is a very accurate player off the tee and into the greens—a must for Royal Troon. Straka has four top 10s this season and tied for 16th at Augusta, his best finish in a major this year.
Min Woo Lee recently tied for second at the Rocket Mortgage Classic but could not replicate that success at the Genesis Scottish Open, finishing in 73rd. He has struggled with his iron play and accuracy off the tee, but if he can avoid Royal Troon’s bunkers and not make grave mistakes, Lee has the game to vie for the Claret Jug.
The Aussie has struggled over the past month or so, with his best result being a T-23 at the John Deere Classic—a tournament that did not boast a strong field. Despite his recent slide, Day has the game to contend at, and possibly win, The Open.
Two straight top-10 finishes for Cameron Young have him trending in the right direction as he still eyes his first career PGA Tour victory. But perhaps it comes this week, as Young has finished solo second and T-8 in the last two Opens. If he can hole some putts and maintain his focus, perhaps the Claret Jug will head back across the pond in Young’s possession.
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Photo by Joseph Weiser/Getty Images
Max Homa has fallen off a cliff since tying for third at the Masters, posting only one top-10 finish—a T-8 at Quail Hollow. His last three starts: a missed cut at the U.S. Open, T-63 in Connecticut, and a T-70 at the Renaissance Club.
An uncharacteristic week on the greens led to Denny McCarthy’s missed cut at the Genesis Scottish Open. But hopefully, for his sake, he gets a better understanding of the pace at Royal Troon. Even the best putters in the world have off weeks.
Louis Oosthuizen has not played in a major yet this year, yet here he is. In December, he won twice on the DP World Tour in his native South Africa. He also has five top-10s on LIV Golf this season, most recently finishing fourth in Andalucía. The 2010 Champion Golfer of the Year loves playing links golf, so it should surprise no one if he contends in The Open again.
Justin Thomas had the golf world buzzing on Thursday after he began the Genesis Scottish Open with a bogey-free, 8-under 62. But then he stumbled over the weekend, finishing the tournament at 4-under and in a tie for 62nd—a microcosm of Thomas’ season, which has featured five top 10s but two missed cuts at Augusta and Pinehurst.
Davis Thompson blitzed TPC Deere Run to win the John Deere Classic with a record-low score of 28-under-par. But he came back to Earth this past week with a T-46 at the John Deere Classic.
Aaron Rai was not in The 152nd Open Championship field as of Sunday morning. But his strong T-4 finish at the Genesis Scottish Open awarded him with a trip to Royal Troon, and rightfully so. Rai is trending in the right direction, posting five straight top-20 finishes, including a tie for second in Detroit.
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Photo by Harry How/Getty Images
If you take the major championships away, Sungjae Im has had a remarkable season. He has six top 10s and 10 top 25 finishes overall, but he somehow missed the cut in each of the three majors. Go figure. Yet, Im has a phenomenal short game, a much-needed attribute for The Open.
Keegan Bradley last made a cut at The Open in 2018 but finished in 79th. Still, the newly minted Ryder Cup captain may have some fire in his belly, knowing that he is the man to lead the Americans next year.
The Englishman tied for fifth at the Memorial, primarily due to a final-round 3-under 69, but has not played well since then. He barely made the cut at the U.S. Open and did not contend in Connecticut and in Scotland, but Fitzpatrick still has the game to contend at Troon.
The 2019 Champion Golfer of the Year has played well as of late, tying for 19th at the U.S. Open and ninth at the Travelers Championship. He has also demonstrated the ability to go low, shooting a 62 at Valhalla and TPC River Highlands. Maybe another low round—and a Claret Jug—is on the horizon for the Irishman.
Adam Scott posted his best finish in almost three years at the Genesis Scottish Open, so perhaps that will serve as a harbinger of things to come this week. He nearly won the 2012 Open at Royal Lytham and St. Anne’s but bogeyed the final four holes to lose to Ernie Els by a stroke. That is well in the past, however, and Scott is as optimistic as ever about the state of his game now.
Since tying for 22nd at the Memorial, Akshay Bhatia has played wonderfully. He tied for 16th at the U.S. Open and finished in the top five at the Travelers Championship and Rocket Mortgage Classic. A three-putt on the 72nd green sealed his fate in Detroit, but Bhatia has the game to vie for an Open title.
Tom Kim almost took down the top-ranked player in the world at the Travelers Championship and also showed that he has the guts to handle pressure down the stretch. He tied for second at Hoylake last year and has made the cut at all three majors this year.
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Photo by Warren Little/Getty Images
Russell Henley has quietly put together a solid season but has not threatened the winner’s circle. Henley has struggled in The Open throughout his career, but you can never say never. He has a terrific short game.
Sahith Theegala most recently tied for fourth at the Genesis Scottish Open, primarily due to a putter that cooperated. If his flat stick can stay hot, watch out for Theegala at Royal Troon. But if his driver gets erratic, he will be a non-factor—a lot of variance in possibilities here.
Maybe Robert MacIntyre would rank higher on this list if not for his massive celebration after his electric Scottish Open victory. All jokes aside, MacIntyre has all the confidence in the world going into Royal Troon, so who says he couldn’t go back-to-back?
After three weeks off, Sam Burns arrives in Scotland feeling refreshed and ready to go, much like his good friend Scottie Scheffler. But Burns has struggled in his three Open appearances, with his best finish being a T-42 at St. Andrews in 2022.
Wyndham Clark has had a poor major campaign in 2024, missing a pair of cuts before tying for 56th at the U.S. Open. But maybe his back-door top 10 at the Genesis Scottish Open, where he shot a final round 8-under 62, will give him a spark.
Brian Harman has not won since he decimated Royal Liverpool a year ago. Still, the former Georgia Bulldog has had a solid run since his missed cut at The Masters. He most recently tied for 21st at the Scottish Open and also tied for ninth at Pinehurst.
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Brooks Koepka has four top-10 finishes at The Open, but he tied for 64th a year ago and missed the cut the year before last at St. Andrews. Still, Koepka is a 5-time major champion, and it would surprise nobody if he hoisted the Claret Jug on Sunday.
Corey Conners has played steady golf all season, making every cut. His best result came at the U.S. Open, where he tied for ninth, but Conners arrives in Scotland looking for more. He has the game to win a Claret Jug, and after making three straight cuts at The Open, maybe this is his week.
Earlier in the year, Joaquin Niemann was arguably the hottest player in the world. However, the young Chilean has struggled in major throughout his career, with his best result coming at The 2023 Masters, when he tied for 16th. Perhaps that changes this week.
Hideki Matsuyama could not find a groove on the greens, which explains why he missed the cut at the Genesis Scottish Open. Otherwise, he has had a solid season, with his best major finish being a solo sixth at Pinehurst. Matsuyama also tied for 13th at Royal Liverpool last year.
Viktor Hovland looked like one of the best players on the planet one year ago when he won the FedEx Cup in Atlanta. But he has struggled with his short game this season, which has produced a scatterplot of results. He missed the cut at Augusta and Pinehurst but somehow sandwiched a T-3 in between at Valhalla.
A terrific ball striker, Tony Finau’s best finish at The Open came in 2019 at Royal Portrush, where he finished solo third. He missed the cut at Royal Liverpool last year but recently posted a T-3 result at Pinehurst No. 2. He then tied for 5th at the Travelers in his latest start.
Cameron Smith has three top 10s in majors since his triumph at the Old Course two years ago. He has one of the best short games in the world, which can carry him to victory this week.
A popular pick this week, Tommy Fleetwood has not missed a cut since the Arnold Palmer Invitational in early March. Fleetwood’s game matches up well with links golf, as evidenced by his three top 10s in the four previous Opens. He tied for 10th at Hoylake last year.
After missing the cut at the Memorial, Patrick Cantlay posted his best career finish in a major, tying for third at Pinehurst No. 2. He then posted a T-5 finish at the Travelers Championship and arrives in Scotland fresh and in form.
After missing the U.S. Open due to a foot injury, Jon Rahm returns to major championship golf after a pair of top 10s on LIV Golf. He missed the cut at Valhalla and tied for 45th at Augusta National, so anything short of that this week will no doubt frustrate the Spaniard and lead to more questions about his decision to join LIV last December.
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Ludvig Åberg held the 36 and 54-hole lead at the Genesis Scottish Open but struggled on Sunday to tie for fourth. Still, he has the game to contend and win on any course, as nothing seems to faze the 24-year-old.
The Englishman has made the cut at all three majors so far this season, with his best finish being a T-9 at Augusta National. He also tied for fifth at the 2016 Open, the last time Royal Troon hosted, and arrives in Ayrshire fresh off a LIV Golf win in Nashville and a T-3 finish in Andalucía.
Collin Morikawa has had an outstanding season as his ball-striking looks to have returned to its top-tier form—the form that won him a pair of majors in 2020 and 2021. That said, he has struggled to close out tournaments in 2024, but Morikawa can easily win a second Claret Jug this week.
Xander Schauffele remains in solid form two months after his major breakthrough at Valhalla. He has posted four straight top-20 finishes, with his best result coming at the U.S. Open, as he tied for seventh. Schauffele most recently finished T-15 at the Genesis Scottish Open.
After his heartbreaking finish at the U.S. Open last month, Rory McIlroy rebounded nicely at the Genesis Scottish Open. If his putter can cooperate throughout the week, McIlroy will be a factor in the end.
Bryson DeChambeau’s best Open Championship finish came two years ago at St. Andrews, where he tied for eighth. But now he arrives as the U.S. Open champion, looking to win back-to-back majors. Nobody has played better in the majors this year than DeChambeau.
A win at Royal Troon would cap a historic season for Scottie Scheffler, who has already won The Masters, The Players, and four Signature Events. His last start came at the Travelers Championship, where he bested his good pal Tom Kim in a playoff. Scheffler arrives in Scotland fresh and ready to vie for the Claret Jug.
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Jack Milko is a golf staff writer for SB Nation’s Playing Through. Be sure to check out @_PlayingThrough for more golf coverage. You can follow him on Twitter @jack_milko as well.
