This is going to be a truly great Stanley Cup Finals.
The 2022 Stanley Cup Finals are one of the most fascinating in recent memory. It might not be the Avalanche vs. Rangers dream that New Yorkers hoped for, but this cup is a wonderful interplay of the new school and old school, weaved together in really unexpected ways.
Can the Avalanche finally break through after a long drought, or will the Lightning win their third-straight Stanley Cup?
Colorado has waited a long time to return to prominence. It’s been over 20 years since the Avalanche were in the Stanley Cup Finals, winning it all in 2001 with Rob Blake, Ray Bourque, Peter Forsberg, Patrick Roy and Joe Sakic — five Hall of Famers who defined the game during their careers. From that point, it’s mostly been disappointment for the franchise. Getting bounced early in the playoffs, underachieving after big expectations — every glimmer of hope was met with disappointment, unable to break through the west and get back to the promised land.
All that changed this season. Everything came together for a league-best 56-19-7 record. Colorado’s astonishing young players Mikko Rantanen and Nathan MacKinnon were joined with the breakout of defender Cale Makar. Makar’s 86 points this season, and stunning playoffs is already putting him in lofty company — with Wayne Gretzky comparing the 23-year-old to Bobby Orr.
There is no doubt that when it comes to the hearts and minds of the country, the Avalanche are the team everyone wants to win. Their old-school pedigree, married with plucky youth makes Colorado immensely compelling — but getting past the Lightning in a series is like climbing a mountain.
History is not on Tampa Bay’s side when it comes to cultivating an old school fanbase. The team only joined the NHL is 1992, and there remains innate dislike of warm climate teams in hockey. Any of those misgivings has to cede to the reality that nobody has has success like the Lightning.
With an average age of 29.55, the Lightning are the second-oldest team in the league this season — led by Steven Stamkos and Tampa Bay’s world-beaters. There’s not much that needs to be said about the exploits of this team, but this season their experience really paid off. In a regular season campaign that saw cracks starting to appear in the aging lineup, but when it mattered the leadership stepped up, beating the Maple Leafs, Panthers and Rangers in three grueling series that required the team to win on the road to get them to this point.
Game 1: Wednesday, June 15: 8 p.m. Tampa Bay at Colorado
Game 2: Saturday, June 18: 8 p.m. Tampa Bay at Colorado
Game 3: Monday, June 20: 8 p.m. Colorado at Tampa Bay
Game 4: Wednesday, June 22: 8 p.m. Colorado at Tampa Bay
*Game 5: Friday, June 24: 8 p.m. Tampa Bay at Colorado
*Game 6: Sunday, June 26: 8 p.m. Colorado at Tampa Bay
*Game 7: Tuesday, June 28: 8 p.m. Tampa Bay at Colorado
* If necessary
The Avalanche and Lightning met twice during the regular season, with Colorado winning 2-0, while Tampa Bay were 0-1-1. In those games they had a narrow 7-5 goal margin, which points to this series being incredibly close.
Avalanche -175
Lightning +150
For the Avalanche it really comes down to three major factors:
When you look at total team depth and talent, Colorado has the edge. However, this is youthful talent who aren’t used to playing on this stage. Paired with that is the trap of starting this series after nine days of rest, a factor of the Avalanche eliminating the Oilers so quickly.
The mistake is to often think that rest is a boon, but for a young team is can cause players to lose focus. Especially when you have a city and a fanbase who have been waiting two decades for this moment. That leads to a lot of pressure, and could see the team get out of the gate slower than expected.
This is compounded by the less-than-stellar goaltending the team has had this season. Neither Darcy Kuemper (who is nursing an injury) or Pavel Francouz have been walls this year, ranking 21st and 22nd respectively in GAA. With the Avalanche’s excellent defenders this has been good enough, but the lightning are a major test to the players between the pipes.
Meanwhile for the Lightning this series comes down to:
It’s been a grueling playoffs for the Lightning who didn’t really get an easy out beyond beating the Panthers. They’ve really had to fight to get to this point, playing 17 playoff games prior to the Stanley Cup Finals, and coming off a six game series against the Rangers.
Most would agree than when it comes to top-end talent the Lightning have the edge in this series, but it’s when we get to the later lines that things look more shaky. The aging Tampa Bay depth will need to content with far younger opponents, and hope their legs can keep up.
Finally, the team has to contain Makar, whose offensive skills are so prolific it’s like having a fourth forward on the ice for the Avalanche. Makar became the first defender in NHL history to register five points in a series-clinching game against the Oilers, and his ability to use his vision and passing prowess to set up his teammates makes him the ultimate x-factor in this series.
It’s extremely nerve wracking to bet against Tampa Bay when it comes to the Stanley Cup Finals, and anyone doubting them should do so at their peril. However, when it’s all said and done I believe the Colorado Avalanche will win the Stanley Cup in a grueling seven game series that sees the home team hoist the trophy in front of their rabid fans.
