Don’t expect their starter to go deep in the game.
The Yankees will start Clarke Schmidt for Game 3 against the Royals, instead of rookie Luis Gil with the series tied at one-game apiece. Schmidt was very solid this year when he was available, with a 2.85 ERA in 16 starts, but he missed three months with a right lat injury. He returned in September and had a 3.65 ERA in five starts, although he failed to get through six innings in any outing.
On the other hand, Luis Gil is a Rookie of the Year candidate after winning 15 games with a 3.50 ERA in 29 starts, good enough for 3.1 rWAR. He did lead the league in walks and has never appeared in the post-season, unlike Schmidt, who appeared in the 2022 playoffs as a reliever. In a series against the Astros, Schmidt gave up a big home run to then-Astros first baseman Yuli Gurriel, who is now with the Royals.
“The best I can tell you is that I just feel like he’s the right guy in that game,” said manager Aaron Boone in explaining the decision. “I have a lot of confidence in what both bring to the table. Hopefully we’re able to move on, and Luis is gonna find him back in the rotation as well if you move on in this thing.
“But right now, I think it’s best that he plays a role in the pen for us, and I just feel like Clarke is in a spot where he’s ready to go for game three.”
Schmidt has a deep arsenal with a cutter, sweeper, sinker, and knuckle curve. His cutter has as whiff rate of 32 percent, but opponents hit .256 against it. The Royals were the fifth-worst team offensively against the cutter with Maikel Garcia and Kyle Isbel among the hitters that struggled the most.
The 28-year-old has a chase rate of 27.2 percent, putting him in just the 31st percentile in MLB. That may mitigate the free-swinging nature of Royals hitters - they were sixth in baseball in swinging at pitches out of the strike zone.
Schmidt gave up a home run to Gurriel in the playoffs, but has never faced him otherwise. Salvador Perez has also homered off Schmidt before, but that is his only hit in six plate appearances. Maikel Garcia is 3-for-8 with a double and two strikeouts, Kyle Isbel and Hunter Renfroe are each 1-for-3 with a double, and Bobby Witt Jr is 1-for-6 against him. But the hitter with the most success against him is Adam Frazier - he’s 4-for-8 with a home run, a walk, and two doubles.
Lefties hit the right-handed Schmidt slightly better than righties, but he did not have a pronounced platoon split. He was much better on the road than at Yankee Stadium with opponents hitting just .211/.295/.280 against him. Schmidt missed the Royals this year, but has a career 3.29 ERA in 13 2⁄3 innings against them, failing to reach six innings in any outing. He was pretty stingy with home runs this year, and he allowed a groundball rate of 40 percent.
Schmidt is a solid pitcher, but he’s not exactly a workhorse. In 53 career MLB starts, he has made it through 6 innings just seven times, and he has never gone as many as 7 innings. So expect him to go through the lineup twice and get pulled with a quick hook. The Yankees used seven relievers on Monday, but with the off-day, they all should be fresh to go today, and Gil could be one of the first pitchers Boone calls on.
Gil could be a bit more problematic for the Royals - he limited them to just one run in five innings last month in Kauffman Stadium. He relies on a 96.6 mph four-seamer that he throws nearly half the time, and the Royals have struggled on fastballs this year. Gil is a flyball pitcher, but spacious Kauffman Stadium should keep many of those balls in the park. He can be a bit wild at times, but the Royals tend to be free-swinging anyway. Gil is also pretty good at stifling the running game (although Schmidt is not bad either), something the Royals would like to get going if they get on the bases.
If the game gets away from Schmidt, expect a lot of second-guessing on Boone’s decision. But Schmidt could give the Yankees a solid 4-5 innings before turning it over to a bullpen that has given up just one run in 9 1⁄3 innings in this series so far. The Royals will counter with Seth Lugo, who was second in baseball in innings pitched with a deep arsenal of pitches. This is a pitching matchup that favors the Royals on paper, but this could very well come down to which bullpen can protect a lead in the later innings.
