The Royals and Tigers have young teams playing well down the stretch.
The Royals and Tigers both battled for the division in 2014, and both began rebuilds around 2017-18. Neither team has had a winning season since then, but that will likely change this year as the Royals have been baseball’s surprise turnaround story, and the Tigers have been one of the best second-half teams in baseball this year. In fact, both the Royals and Tigers are 30-23 since the All-Star Game - only the Astros have a better record in the American League over that time.
Detroit Tigers (77-73) vs. Kansas City Royals (82-68) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Tigers: 4.23 runs scored/game (17th in MLB), 4.00 runs allowed/game (6th)
Royals: 4.73 runs scored/game (10th), 4.04 runs allowed/game (7th)
The Tigers really made their run in the last month. They were under .500 at the trade deadline and dealt outfielder Mark Canha, starting pitcher Jack Flaherty, and reliever Andrew Chafin. They fell to 55-63 on August 10, but since then have won 22 of 32 games to climb within 2.5 games of the final playoff spot.
The Royals have had their number this year, winning seven of ten matchups, including a sweep at Kauffman Stadium back in May. The Tigers have been a solid road team this year, going 38-37.
Only seven teams have hit fewer home runs than the Tigers, and only two teams have a lower on-base percentage. The Tigers are hitting .266/.333/.470 with runners in scoring position, the fifth-best OPS in those situations.
The Tigers have played a lot better since getting healthier. Parker Meadows is hitting .297/.342/.536 with 5 home runs in 35 games since returning from injury. Kerry Carpenter is hitting .286/.347/.593 with 7 home runs in 26 games since coming back. Riley Greene homered twice on Sunday and is hitting .327/.393/.653 with four home runs in 13 games this month.
Spencer Torkelson is hitting just .201/.254/.305 on the road this year. Justyn-Henry Malloy mashes lefties, hitting .293/.420/.585 against southpaws. Colt Keith is fifth among American League position player rookies in fWAR with 1.9. Only five teams have stolen fewer bases than the Tigers, but only two teams have been picked off less. Riley Greene has been a tremendous defender in the outfield, and Jake Rogers has been solid behind the plate.
The Tigers are expected to activate Reese Olson to start on Monday after he missed a month with a shoulder strain. In four career starts against the Royals, he has a 2.53 ERA, but has never defeated them with an 0-2 record. Righties are hitting just .220/.254/.301 against him this year. He has the fifth-highest groundball rate for pitchers with at least 100 innings at 51.2 percent, relying heavily on his slider.
Casey Mize gave up six runs on nine hits in less than two innings in his last visit to Kauffman Stadium back in May. He has given up 11 runs in 16 innings in his three starts since returning from a hamstring injury. He has a 5.05 ERA on the road with opponents hitting .308/.362/.473. Opponents are hitting .300 off his 95 mph four-seamer, and he also throws a slider, splitter, sinker, and knucklecurve.
Tarik Skubal is the leading candidate for the Cy Young, leading the American League in fWAR (5.4), rWAR (5.9), wins (16), ERA (2.50), FIP (2.56), and strikeouts (214). He has given up four runs or more in a start just six times this year, two of which came in losses to the Royals. Lefties are hitting just .185/.239/.250 against Skubal this year. He has the second-best strikeout-to-walk ratio in baseball and the seventh-lowest home run rate. He throws a 96.9 mph fastball to set up a change up that has a 46.8 percent whiff rate, mixing in a sinker, slider, and curve.
The Tigers bullpen has a 3.61 ERA - 3.00 since the All-Star break - fifth-best in baseball overall. They have succeeded despite having the fourth-lowest strikeout rate because they have the lowest walk rate. They are tied for the lowest rate of inherited runners they have allowed to score.
Closer Jason Foley has converted 23-of-26 save opportunities and he has a 0.98 ERA in 18 1⁄3 innings since the start of August with opponents hitting .131. Tyler Holton has given up just two earned runs in 44 2⁄3 innings since the start of July for a 0.40 ERA. Journeyman Sean Guenther gave up a run in his season debut with the Tigers but has not allowed anyone to cross home in ten outings since then. Shelby Miller has a 5.52 ERA since the start of August and has the 15th-highest home run rate among qualified relievers.
The Tigers are rolling with a young lineup, solid starting pitching, and a shutdown bullpen in the last month. It may be too little, too late, but if the Twins continue to falter, the Tigers could be a surprise playoff team. At the very least, they are a team hungry for wins that will give the Royals all they can handle in the last homestand of the season.
