The Royals skipper could win AL Manager of the Year.
In his second season of managing, Matt Quatraro is engineering one of the biggest improvements in baseball history. After losing 106 games last year, the Royals have already won 20 more games this year with several weeks to go. If they manage to win 15 of their final 21 games, they will tie the 1999 Diamondbacks for the biggest single-season improvement in baseball history - 35 wins.
The improvement wildly exceeds expectations for the club before the season. Although the Royals were one of the biggest spenders this off-season, few observers felt the team was anywhere close to contention. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections had the Royals winning 71 games, and while Dan Szymborski’s ZIPS projections were more optimistic at 76 wins, they still underestimated the talent level of this team.
Exceeding expectations is typically the formula for winning Manager of the Year, and Quatraro has emerged as the favorite, according to some oddsmakers. Vahe Gregorian at the Star has begun to beat the drum for Quatraro to win the award, arguing his steady hand, even-keeled demeanor, and infusion of data in decision-making has allowed the players to flourish.
“I don’t think he wants any credit …” Picollo said recently. “But it’s hard not to notice what he’s doing.”
By Pythagorean run expectation, the Royals have actually underachieved based on the run differential by three wins. However there are reasons not to attribute that to the manager and instead mark it up to just bad luck.
So how do we evaluate a manager? Back in 2016, Fangraphs writer Eno Sarris came up with four variables:
When he uses his best relievers.
How rigid his approach to the bullpen is.
Where he puts his best hitters in the lineup.
How often he bunts with non-pitchers.
Bullpen usage is a bit of a chicken-and-egg problem. Are the relievers bad because they’ve been put in the wrong situations? Or did the situation blow up because the reliever is bad? Quatraro has been given a bullpen that is second-to-worst in baseball in strikeout rate, which can’t really be attributed to his managing. He has handed his toughest situations to John Schreiber and James McArthur - they lead the team in High Leverage appearances. But the question of “who should get the ball in tight situations” is one that really hasn’t had a good answer all year. Anytime a reliever looks good in one outing and fans clamor for him to be THE guy, that pitcher blows up the next outing.
Quatraro has shown great flexibility in reliever usage, an asset in my mind (although much fo the ire of other fans). Having rigid roles makes some sense if you have three dominant relievers like Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis, and Greg Holland. But when you have one of the worst bullpens in baseball you have to look for specific matchups to put your shaky relievers in the best position to succeed. Quatraro has done that, putting newly-acquired flamethrower Lucas Erceg in tight situations in the seventh inning when the game is on the line. Again, we can quibble with his choices, but at the end of the day, the relievers need to execute.
The offense has been surprisingly good this year, currently ninth in baseball in runs-scored-per-game, despite a recent dry spell. Quatraro has hit his MVP-level hitter, Bobby Witt Jr. in the two-hole all year, a good spot a player of his caliber, followed by RBI-machine Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez. The problem has been in the leadoff spot, where Maikel Garcia did not live up to expectations, and the team has struggled to find anyone who can set the table for their big hitters. Royals leadoff hitters are batting .231/.276/.342, the worst OPS and the worst on-base percentage in baseball by a significant margin.
And now the team faces a void without Pasquantino the rest of the year. Quatraro deserves some credit for the offense performing as well as it has - I don’t think anyone predicted this would be a top-ten offense before the year. But shepherding this offense to the post-season will require some creative managing down the stretch.
Finally, analytics would discourage sacrificing outs to move runners, although the stance on that has softened a bit in recent years. The Royals are fourth in baseball in sacrifice hits with 22, but seven are from #9 hitter Kyle Isbel, with another four from Garcia, who has struggled much of the year. The Royals are tenth in baseball with 114 steals with an above-average success rate of 80 percent. They have made 33 outs on the bases, far better than league average and have only been picked off 13 times, just slightly worse than league average (despite Bobby Witt Jr. tying for the league lead with 7). Overall, the Royals are seventh in baseball in Baserunning Runs, not too surprising for a team with speedsters like Witt, Garcia, and Dairon Blanco.
You could surely quibble with some of Quatraro’s moves this year. I would probably lean on the starting pitchers more than he is - future be damned - but I get wanting to limit their innings considering their track records. I’d at least try Bobby Witt Jr. in the leadoff spot - get him more at-bats! And the Adam Frazier fetish is bizarre, to say the least.
But the proof is in the pudding. The Royals have had a massive, almost unprecedented improvement in one year. A lot of that is due to investments made by ownership and shrewd signings by the front office. But Quatraro and his calming influence, flexible approach, and steady leadership deserve a lot of credit.
What do you think of Matt Quatraro?
