The Royals can officially reclaim playoff position with a win this afternoon
After winning in convincing fashion against the team ahead of them in the Wild Card standings, the Royals have an opportunity this evening to guarantee themselves a winning series and - for only the second time this year - a winning road trip. As good as the Royals have been at home, they have struggled mightily on the road at times, but now they’re on a four-game winning streak and can put an exclamation point on their first half with a victory tonight, tomorrow, or - even better - both.
The odds would seem to favor the Royals as Cy Young Award candidate Seth Lugo will make his final start before the All-Star Break tonight. Lugo, in case you’ve been hiding under a rock, leads the American League in wins, ERA, and innings pitched. It’s not quite the pitching triple crown (which counts strikeouts instead of innings pitched) but it’s been plenty good enough as the Royals made an incredibly savvy signing to bring him in for a fraction of what many other starting pitchers are making this season.
The Red Sox, however, will not quietly give in. They will send to the mound righty Kutter Crawford. Crawford is enjoying a career year in what may end up being his first season as a full-time starter with a 3.24 ERA in his 18 starts. Despite the sparkling ERA, things have been a bit uneven for Crawford throughout the season. In his first five starts, he allowed only two earned runs across 27.1 innings. In his last three starts, he’s allowed only a single run over 14.1 innings - though that does include a 1.1 inning start where he was pulled when rain caused the game to be suspended.
In between those stretches, though, Crawford made 11 starts to a 4.86 ERA and gave up four or more runs in six of them. Crawford also has not distinguished himself in his career against KC having started two games and giving up eight runs in an out above eight innings pitched. He also has a much worse ERA at home vs away - 4.15 to 2.35. In a split that features almost the same amount of innings pitched, he has a similar number of walks, strikeouts, and home runs. The only other number that stands out as significantly different is the number of hits and specifically doubles; he has allowed 11 doubles at home and only 4 on the road. He particularly struggles against righties at home. Perhaps players are able to bang hits off the Green Monster that turn into flyouts elsewhere.
Seth Lugo heads to the mound this afternoon as we look to secure a series win in Boston. pic.twitter.com/I3Osma3QKH
— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) July 13, 2024
Blue and yellow Saturday. pic.twitter.com/Va8ZbIjqJl
— Red Sox (@RedSox) July 13, 2024
Given what I just wrote, it’s not surprising to see manager Matt Quatraro give a couple of his lefties - Michael Massey and Kyle Isbel - a day off. MJ Melendez and Vinnie Pasquantino are still in there as one hits amazing in Fenway and the other is just a top-notch hitter regardless. I am a bit fascinated by the choice to start Adam Frazier in the lineup, though. He is one-for-three with a double and a walk against Crawford so maybe that intrigued Q.
Interestingly, the Red Sox decided to load their lineup with lefties against Lugo. Perhaps manager Alex Cora was looking at the same splits as Q because while Lugo is slightly better against lefties on the season, his worst splits when divided by both handedness and road-home are against lefties on the road. Even then, it’s only a .272 wOBA, so it’s unlikely this is some secret kryptonite.
