We close out the first half.
The Royals have had some ups and downs this so far this season, but they have a chance to end the first half with an exclamation point with a successful series against the team just ahead of them in the Wild Card standings, the Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox were under .500 on May 30, but have won 23 of 35 since then and lead the Royals by one game for the final Wild Card spot.
Kansas City Royals (51-43) vs. Boston Red Sox (51-41) at Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Royals: 4.60 runs scored/game (12th in MLB), 3.95 runs allowed/game (5th)
Red Sox: 4.73 runs scored/game (11th), 4.26 runs allowed/game (13th)
Boston has been particularly hot lately, winning 8 of 10, taking their last three series against the Marlins, Yankees, and Athletics. Curiously, they have been a losing team at home, going 22-24 at Fenway Park.
The Red Sox have hit the eighth-most home runs in baseball but with the fourth-highest strikeout rate. Rafael Devers has the tenth-most home runs this year and is hitting .316/.410/.679 against right-handed pitching. Jarred Duran is a .301/.368/.511 batter at Fenway Park. Tyler O’Neill has bounced back from two rough seasons in St. Louis, welcoming a change of scenery in Boston.
David Hamilton is fourth in baseball with 23 steals, but is hitting just .211/.262/.316 in his last 20 games. Ceddanne Rafaela has the seventh-lowest hard-hit rate among qualified hitters and the second-lowest walk-to-strikeout ratio. Dominic Smith has struggled to fill the void at first base with Triston Casas out due to injury.
Cooper Criswell is expected to be recalled from Triple-A to start on Friday. The journeyman has looked solid for the Red Sox in 11 starts, but he has yet to go as many as six innings in a start this year. He relies primarily on a sweeper, change up, and sinker to yield a 47.7 percent groundball rate.
Kutter Crawford has given up just one run over 13 innings in his last two starts, including seven shutout innings against the Yankees. His .255 BABIP is 11th-lowest among qualified starters and he has the seventh-highest flyball rate. That flyball rate hasn’t fared well at Fenway Park - he has a 4.15 ERA there compared to 2.35 on the road. He throws a 92 mph fastball, a cutter, a sweeper, and a splitter that opponents are hitting just .156 against with a 42.7 percent whiff rate.
The Red Sox signed Brayan Bello to a six-year, $55 million deal before the year, but he has regressed after winning 12 games with a 4.24 ERA last year. The 25-year-old has significantly improved his strikeout rate this year, and he whiffed a season-high 11 batters last time out against the A’s, but also gave up five runs in 5 1⁄3 innings. Bello throws a mid-90s sinker with a change up and slider, with a 52.6 percent groundball rate.
Boston relievers have a 3.69 ERA, 12th-lowest among bullpens, with the lowest walk rate in baseball. Relying almost exclusively on his cutter, closer Kenley Jansen has converted 18-of-19 save opportunities and has not given up a run since June 12. Jansen and Chase Anderson each have flyball rates over 50 percent, among the highest in baseball. Justin Slaten has been the jewel of the Rule 5 draft, with a four-seamer that opponents are hitting just .147 against and a sweeper with a 40.6 percent whiff rate. Greg Weissert has given up 11 runs in his last five games.
July is too early to say a series will have playoff implications, but beating the Red Sox head-to-head on the road would give this young Royals team a lot of momentum going into the All-Star break. The rotation sets up nicely for this series, but Fenway Park has proven to be a difficult place to pitch. The Royals are playing meaningful games in July, but a good series may be evidence there are more meaningful games to play later this year.
