The Royals played them close before, but can they beat the Orioles?
The Orioles were widely expected to be one of the leading contenders to win it all this year with their young talented core, and they have gotten off to one of the best starts in baseball. But hanging right with them is the surprising Royals, who played the Orioles very close in a three-game series in Baltimore the first week of the series. Baltimore took two of three, but in both Orioles wins the Royals were either tied or winning going into the bottom of the ninth.
Baltimore Orioles (12-6) vs. Kansas City Royals (12-7) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Orioles: 5.78 runs scored/game (2nd in MLB), 4.28 runs allowed/game (12th)
Royals: 4.84 runs scored/game (11th), 2.74 runs allowed/game (1st)
Since then, the Orioles have called up infielder Jackson Holliday, the consensus #1 prospect in all of baseball. The son of All-Star outfielder Matt Holiday, Jackson is a five-tool player with terrific power from the left side. But like many prospects, the 20-year-old has struggled out of the gate, going 1-for-25 with 14 strikeouts to begin his big league career.
Outfield prospect Colton Cowser, meanwhile, is off to a terrific start, hitting .400 with four home runs and a team-high six doubles already. Young infielders Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg are also playing well, both hitting over .300. Henderson leads the team with six home runs, while Westburg has four, including this massive shot against Boston earlier this year. Former Royals first baseman Ryan O’Hearn is hitting .319/.385/.660 with four home runs and is in the top percentile in nearly every relevant hitting metric.
The Orioles are dead last in walk rate as a club, but they have hit the most home runs. They have been a much-better hitting team at Camden Yards than on the road. They have stolen just 13 bases as a team, but lead baseball in Baserunning Runs.
All statistics are 2023 numbers.
Orioles starters had the seventh-lowest walk rate last year, and have the second-lowest rate this year. Dean Kremer was lit up for eight runs in just four innings his last time out against Milwaukee and has a 4.96 ERA over his first three starts. He gave up three runs in 5 1⁄3 innings in a no-decision against the Royals earlier this year. He throws a four-seamer, cutter, sinker, changeup, and a very hittable curveball that opponents hit .347 off last year.
The Royals had to wait several hours in a rain delay to face Corbin Burnes earlier this month, and managed to get just two runs on nine hits in 5 2/3 innings against him. He has a 2.28 ERA this year with 25 strikeouts to just 4 walks. he has been the third-most valuable pitcher in baseball over the last three seasons with a near-unhittable curveball.
Kansas City’s only win against Baltimore came against Cole Irvin, who gave up four runs in five innings. He has a 6.75 ERA overall and has yet to pitch more than five innings this year. He generally throws strikes and gets groundballs, although his walk rate is slightly higher this year.
All statistics are 2023 numbers.
Baltimore relievers have a 3.36 ERA, but the third-best FIP at 2.92. They have the fifth-best strikeout rate and the second-lowest walk rate. The Royals touched up closer Craig Kimbrel for a run on April 1, giving him a blown save, but he has converted all four saves since then with no runs allowed in seven outings since then. Yennier Cano has the highest groundball rate among relievers at 76 percent. Lefties Keegan Akin and Danny Coloumbe have each walked just one hitter in eight appearances.
All statistics are 2023 numbers.
The Orioles have won four in a row, including a three-game sweep at home against the Twins. The Royals have shown they can hang against what should be one of the best teams in baseball, but they will have to win more of these kinds of games if they really want to be taken seriously as a potential post-season contender.
