Better know a draft prospect: Nick Kurtz

The Wake Forest first baseman is one of the most complete amateur hitters in the country.

We are right around the halfway point of the college baseball season, which means the MLB Draft will be here before you know it. Earlier this week, Preston provided a bit of an overview of some of the prospects that will be near the top of the draft this summer. Over the next few months leading up to draft day, I will be diving deep into some of these prospects to provide a more detailed look at who the Royals could target with the sixth overall pick. As alluded to in the prospect overview, the top of this draft is very college-heavy, which is great for me since I’ve watched these guys play over the last few years and have a much better handle on them as players than on prep guys. Let’s begin today with a favorite of mine that I was surprised Preston did not mention in the overview: Wake Forest first baseman Nick Kurtz.

Kurtz hails from Lancaster, Pennsylvania, but attended Baylor School in Chattanooga, Tennessee. He starred in basketball and baseball, playing the outfield and pitching on the diamond. Kurtz helped Baylor win consecutive state championships in Tennessee’s Division II 2-A. He was originally recruited as a pitcher but wound up a full-time hitter by the time he stepped on campus in Winston-Salem.

In his freshman fall in 2021, Kurtz impressed at the plate with his mature approach. He won the first base job and started all three games there on opening weekend in 2022. He hit the ground running, collecting four hits and four walks. It took Kurtz little time to adjust to the collegiate level and, aside from a quiet weekend against Florida State to open conference play, he never really slumped. Never until the postseason, that is. Wake Forest was placed in the College Park Regional as the #2 seed. The Demon Deacons went 1-2 to end their season, with Kurtz going just 1-13.

Kurtz finished the season hitting .338/.471/.637, good for a team-high 157 wRC+. He demonstrated an excellent approach for a freshman, walking 18.5% of the time while striking out just 14.7%. Even more impressive is that Kurtz fared better once he began seeing tougher pitching in conference play, hitting .410/.531/.700 in ACC play. He was a consensus Freshman All-American and earned Third Team All-ACC honors.

Expectations were high for Kurtz and the Deacs in 2023 and both opened the season on a tear. He went yard four times in four opening weekend games, all dominant wins, to earn Player of the Week honors from multiple publications. Once again, Kurtz raked in non-conference and continued raking in ACC play. He missed a bit of time with an injury in mid-April but didn’t skip a beat, winning ACC Player of the Week honors in his first series back.

Wake Forest did not lose a weekend all season and rolled into the NCAA Tournament as the #1 overall seed. They cruised through their Regional with a 3-0 record, aided by Kurtz going 5-11 with two doubles and six walks. In the Super Regional against Alabama, late in Wake’s game two win that would send them to the College World Series, Kurtz was plunked in the ribs. He remained in the game, but he was clearly not 100%. After being hit, he went 0-10 with six strikeouts. He was scratched before the semifinal loss to LSU that ended Wake Forest’s season.

Kurtz finished 2023 batting .353/.527/.784, once again leading the team with a 188 wRC+. He walked 23.8% of the time while striking out 18.9%. His .352/.504/.739 line in ACC play was far and away the best on the team. Kurtz was a consensus All-American and First-Team All-ACC while being named a semifinalist for the Golden Spikes Award.

Named team captain for 2024, Kurtz got off to a surprisingly slow start. He looked out of sorts at the plate, continuing to draw his walks but contributing little else offensively. He may have been dealing with an injury and, in a March 15 game against Virginia, he departed after apparently hurting his shoulder while playing in the field. He was expected to miss a few weeks, but he surprisingly returned just 11 days later as the DH and, by April 2, he was back at first base. At the time of his injury, Kurtz was hitting .241/.475/.444. He’s gone nuclear since returning — he’s homered in six straight games, including a three-homer afternoon in a win over Virginia Tech. This brief stretch has boosted his line to a much more Kurtzian .318/.512/.807 with a 28.0% walk rate and a 15.2% K rate.

We’re far enough out from the draft that prospect rankings will be in flux over the next couple months, but most sources have put something out since the college season started. He started the season near the top on many lists before falling back on some updates due to his early struggles. Here is where Kurtz lands according to various publications:

MLB Pipeline: 2

Prospects Live: 11

Perfect Game: 9

Baseball America ($): 8

Keith Law ($): 6

Kiley McDaniel ($): 3

Kurtz is an imposing figure in the batter’s box, setting up his 6’5”, 240 lb frame from the left side with a slightly open stance. His swing starts with a simple, shallow load with just a bit of bat wrap. He’ll use a leg kick most of the time but quiets down to a toe-tap with two strikes. In either case, Kurtz doesn’t take much of a stride, with his front foot coming down in nearly the same spot as it started.

Despite his size, Kurtz is short to the ball with a compact swing. He doesn’t swing from a particularly stable base — both feet can be all over the place through his swing — relying on his upper-body strength and plus bat speed to drive the ball. While this may sacrifice some power, this allows Kurtz to get the barrel to pitches in any part of the strike zone. His swing is geared to lift the ball with a groundball rate in college of just 33.0%. Combine all this with an advanced batting eye and you get a guy that looks like the complete package at the plate.

Kurtz’s plus power plays to all fields. Try to beat him hard-in, and he can turn on it and pull it over the fence in right:

Throw anything in the middle or outer-third of the plate and Kurtz will drive it to center (note the leg kick here on 3-1 as opposed to the toe tap in the above homer on 1-2):

Try to backdoor a breaking ball and Kurtz can sit back and poke it out to left:

The risk of taking Kurtz at #6 is that he is essentially a bat-only prospect. He has played just one collegiate game at a position other than first base, which was a start in right field back in 2022. He has graded as a plus-defender at first base since the start of 2023 and looks the part out there, moving well around the bag with good hands and athleticism. He has a decent arm and somewhere from fringe to average speed, depending on who you ask, so a team could try him in an outfield corner in pro ball if they want to raise the floor. Likely the bulk of his production will come in the batter’s box.

The Royals don’t tend to take defensively limited players at the top of the draft, but they did take a player with some similarities with their first pick in 2017 when they drafted Nick Pratto 14th overall. Both guys are named Nick, showed promise as a pitcher but took off with the bat in their senior years of high school, hit and throw from the left side, and play plus defense at first base (or were at least expected to as prospects). The key differences are that Kurtz has proven it over two and a half years in the second-best conference in college baseball, and that Kurtz has a level of physicality that Pratto doesn’t. It’s risky to take a first baseman this high in the draft, but Kurtz just might have the bat to justify it.