The Royals will pick sixth overall this year.
The college baseball season is well underway and many of the top prospects have started to stand out above the crowd. The MLB Draft lottery awarded the Royals the sixth overall pick in this year’s draft, but the team owns the fourth-highest draft bonus pool, thanks in part to owning picks 39 and 41 as well. Recent first-round picks for the Royals have either struggled substantially or been slow to develop — or both. 2020 fourth overall pick, Asa Lacy, underwent Tommy John surgery this spring and will miss his second full season in a row. Frank Mozzicato and Gavin Cross have had some degree of success in the low minors but have otherwise struggled.
This year’s draft will give the Royals another chance to inject premium talent into the farm system. Blake Mitchell and Blake Wolters have generated some buzz since being selected last year and should get a chance to prove it on the field early this season. Although they went heavy with prep talent early in 2023, the same shouldn’t be expected this time around. The 2024 prep class is thin with talent compared to the years past. For that reason, alongside the hefty bonus pool, don’t be surprised if the Royals decide to sign someone for full slot value this year.
As the college season has chugged along, the top two options in this year’s draft have started to separate themselves from the pack. Second Baseman Travis Bazzana (Oregon State) and Outfielder Charlie Condon (Georgia) are the odds-on favorites to go 1-2 in this year’s draft. Since the likelihood that either will be available at six is so low, there’s not much reason to look closer at them in this preview. Nonetheless, if either was available they’d be the top option by far for Kansas City at pick six.
As mentioned previously, the prep class is thin this year and as a result, the Royals draft could land very college-heavy. This is similar to what happened in 2022 when the team selected college players with each of their first 17 picks. Here is a look at the options ahead for the Royals with the sixth overall pick.
Wetherholt will be 21 on draft day. He was seen as one of the top three 2024 draft prospects entering the season but unfortunately suffered an injury early on. In all, he’s appeared in just four games this season. In 2023 for the Mountaineers, Wetherholt slashed .449/.517/.787 in 55 games with 16 home runs. He walked 26 times against just 22 strikeouts. Even considering Bazzana and Condon, Wetherholt has a case as one of the best hitters in this year’s class. If not for injury, I’m not sure we’d even be talking about him here at pick number six. He’s a true second baseman on the diamond with the bat and approach to carry value there.
In a weak prep class, Griffin stands out even more. He’ll barely be 18 on draft day and already has a solid 6-4 frame. He’s played shortstop and center field in high school. Long-term, he has a great profile for center thanks to his elite speed and strong arm. There’s a true five-tool upside to be found in Griffin, but the power/speed combination is what stands out above the rest. He has impressive bat speed, leading to loud contact and great exit velocities. Through 25 games this spring, he’s slashed .574/.724/.983 with five home runs, 32 walks, and five strikeouts. He also has 57 stolen bases. If the Royals believe in the upside, Griffin is clearly the top prep option in this year’s class.
Braden Montgomery isn’t an up-the-middle prospect so it’s unclear if the Royals will consider him early in the first. The last Royals first-round pick that didn’t pitch or play up the middle was Nick Pratto in 2017. Even still, Montgomery would be more than worthy of the sixth overall pick if he’s there at all. He has an elite arm but profiles best as a corner outfielder. He also has perhaps the best power ceiling of any prospect available in this year’s draft. So far in 2024, Montgomery has appeared in 29 games. He’s slashed .385/.518/.954. Montgomery has 17 home runs in just 139 plate appearances. He’s not much of a runner and won’t steal a ton of bags, but has improved his strikeout rate substantially this season. So far he has 27 walks against just 19 strikeouts.
First and foremost, I am out on Jac Caglianone. He’s an impressive prospect on both sides of the ball and profiles as one of the best two-way prospects we’ve seen enter the draft. Some have even gone so far as to call him “Jactani.” That’s fun and all, but I have a hard time seeing Caglianone doing both at the sport's highest level. If you take away the two-way moniker, he profiles as a raw pitching prospect with extreme reliever risk. He touches triple-digits with his fastball and has a wipeout slider. At the plate, he again profiles as a raw prospect, but the ceiling is immense. Caglianone has elite power potential but struggles with chase. In 28 games for the Gators this season, “Cags” has slashed .397/.482/.776 with 14 home runs.
Chase Burns has been the noisiest pitching prospect this spring, but there’s a strong argument for Hagen Smith ahead of him this year. He hides the baseball well and has a deceptive delivery. He has somewhat of a shorter arm action that helps aid that deception. His arsenal is well-stocked, featuring a four-seam fastball that has touched triple-digits at times but more often sits in the mid-90s. His best pitch is a dominant splitter, and he also mixes in a sinker, slider, and curveball. If they take a pitcher early, I’d rather the Royals go with a proven LHP than a proven RHP — the ceiling just seems higher (whether that’s true or not). Smith has made seven starts for the Razorbacks in 2024. He has a 1.54 ERA over 35.0 IP with 72 strikeouts and just ten walks allowed.
Burns has been all over the NCAA headlines this spring. The Wake Forest “ace” of sorts has been on a skyrocketing trajectory ever since entering the transfer portal from Tennessee. He’s much more of a two-pitch starter, relying heavily on an elite upper-90s fastball. He also has a devastating, wipeout slider. He started throwing a curveball and changeup for the first time this season. Although his premium stuff is as dominant as it comes, there are some makeup concerns with Burns. His delivery can be very aggressive at times as well, which gives me some concern about injury risk. That’s how it goes with most hard-throwing arms, however. So far in 2024, Burns has made seven starts for Wake Forest. Over 43.2 IP he has a 2.89 ERA with 82 strikeouts and 12 walks.
King has some of the best exit velocity numbers in this year’s draft class. He makes solid contact at all times, despite his rather aggressive approach. Although that’s worked for him thus far in college, it might limit him some at the next level. King was dominant in 2023 for Wingate University in North Carolina. Before 2024 he transferred to Wake Forest and has been good, but not quite as dominant. The competition in the ACC is much better than that in the South Atlantic Conference. Even still, King has slashed .301/.351/.537 this season in 28 games. The fact that he’s maintained his strong power output despite facing better competition is an encouraging sign. He’s walked just 5.2% this season but has limited his strikeouts to just 11.9% in the process.
Benge is a fringe top-10 prospect for many (much like Blake Mitchell was last summer) but would be more than okay by me at sixth overall this year. He’s a draft-eligible sophomore playing in his second season for Oklahoma State. Over 29 games, Benge has slashed .313/.426/.548. He has five home runs, 24 walks (17.0%), and 21 strikeouts (14.8%). Similar to Carson Roccaforte — who the Royals drafted in 2023 — Benge has excellent batted ball data with a great approach. He has very low chase rates and makes regular contact. As of March 18, Benge had a 92% in-zone contact rate. The hit tool is comfortably plus and the power potential exists if he can start to lift the ball with regularity.
Although it seems unlikely the Royals will go under-slot this year, no one truly knows until the draft board falls. Teams enter the draft with a handful of different scenarios and how they’ll handle them. Should the Royals go under-slot this year, these are the options I’d expect them to consider.
RHP Mavrick Rizy — Worcester Academy
Rizy is committed to LSU and ranks as the top New England prospect in the 2024 MLB Draft. In case you weren’t aware, the Royals have gone back to the northeast many times in recent years. Frank Mozzicato, Hiro Wyatt, and Henry Williams are three prospects from the Northeast that the team has scouted and acquired in recent years. Rizy would represent the next on that list. Rizy has an immense 6-9 frame and comes in at 230 pounds. Rizy has a full pitch mix, including a mid-90s fastball as well as a sinker, slider, and curveball.
CF Mike Sirota — Northeastern
Sirota is certainly trending down early in this year’s draft cycle, but profiles as the sort of prospect the Royals have come to value historically. He’s a plus-defender in center field and should stick there long-term. Outside of his defense, the swing is structurally sound, but there are questions about the level of competition he’s faced thus far.
OF Slade Caldwell — Valley View HS
Caldwell is quietly rising in this year’s prep class. The intangibles are outstanding. Whatever the opposite of makeup concerns is, that’s what you get with Caldwell. He has a small 5-6 frame, which alone might make him more of a comp-round prospect than a true under-slot option. He has an impressive approach, especially considering his age. The bat is destined more for gap power than over-the-fence ability, but he’s a well-rounded hitter at the plate.
BONUS — RHP Dennis Colleran
Yes, another New England prospect. Colleran is from North Attelbro, Massachusets. He’s teammates with Sirota at Northeastern and could be an under-the-radar prospect for the Royals in the comp-round or even rounds 2-3. He’s purely a projection prospect for me after coming off Tommy John surgery, but he’s touching upper-90s post-surgery. It’s unclear if Colleran is truly a starter or destined to pitch in relief. He’s done both so far this spring for Northeastern. The ERA is poor and he’s been inconsistent, but the pure stuff is worth considering within the top 100 picks.
