William Hague, Telegraph
The biggest threat to the security of western nations and the lives of their citizens is a terrorist attack. This is a threat that has to be defeated, but it is not the one that will overwhelm our political systems. The crisis that would bring extremists and mavericks to power in major countries will be rooted in loss of control of migration or a renewed financial disaster.
Soner Cagaptay, Politico EU
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoan is all but certain to become the longest serving Turkish leader in modern history, surpassing even Mustafa Kemal Atatrk. The founder of modern Turkey ruled the country for 15 years between 1923 and 1938. By the time he finishes his current term, Erdoan will have run Turkey for 17 years, as prime minister between 2002 and 2014 and as president until 2019.
Andres Velasco, Project Syndicate
There was a time when it might have been said that Puerto Rico, in the midst of a wrenching debt crisis, was returning to its Latin roots. After all, Latin American governments were once world leaders in over-indebtedness. But the United States’ public debt now stands at over 100% of its GDP, and Detroit has just gone through bankruptcy. Perhaps Puerto Rico is, at last, becoming more American. Or perhaps it is becoming more European, given the resemblance of its debt problems to those of Greece. Читать дальше...
William Mackey, The Diplomat
In Indonesia, terrorist attacks – particularly those against police outposts – are nothing new. They have occurred, if not regularly, then at least consistently, during the course of the last several years (although few have been as deadly as the January 14 assault). And just because the most recent attacks were done in the name of ISIS, does not mean that Indonesia needs to panic. It is still facing the same poorly trained and poorly armed extremists as before, and they do not... Читать дальше...
Shlomi Eldar, Al-Monitor
A member of the Palestinian security forces told Al-Monitor that Israel’s mistake is that it does not realize that deterrence will only be achieved once it prevents young Palestinian assailants from becoming shahids — that is, once it stops killing them. In this way, youths will believe that martyrdom is not the answer. The fewer shahids there are, he argued, the fewer youths who will follow in their path and attempt to emulate them.
Sven Bergsberg, Miami Herald
Venezuela’s economy and security, long in decline, slid into crisis over the past year. Food and manufactured goods are scarce. Inflation, the highest in the world, is out of control. The International Monetary Fund predicted last week that prices would rise 720 percent this year. Murder, robbery and kidnappings are common. The U.S. State Department has regularly issued warnings to American citizens about the country’s security. Foreign tourists, particularly Americans, have disappeared throughout Venezuela.
Nick Frisch, New York Times
Beijing has pursued a decades-long strategy of patience and economic courtship, hoping that Taiwan would peacefully rejoin the mainland. And the Taiwanese do want stable, functional ties with China. Polls show most Taiwanese favor the status quo of de facto independence, without any official declaration that would enrage Beijing and possibly provoke an invasion. But with the mainland’s economic miracle running aground, many Taiwanese are questioning the wisdom of lashing themselves to the mast.
Walter Mead & Harry Cohen, American Interest
The most dramatic development in 2015 was that Iran catapulted into the ranks of the great powers, expanding their number to eight. Iran and Saudi Arabia are now engaged in a zero sum, no holds barred struggle to control the Middle East and its massive oil reserves. Falling oil prices create problems for both powers, but the combination of religious hatred and geopolitical competition ensures that both countries will give this competition everything they’ve got. Читать дальше...
Siobhan O'Grady, Foreign Policy
Rouhani arrived in Rome Monday, and on Tuesday Prime Minister Matteo Renzi went so far as to ensure nude statues in Rome’s famous Capitoline Museums were covered with white cardboard before the two visited exhibits there together.
Antonia Colibasanu, RealClearWorld
The better-known Radetzky March is a musical march, Op. 228, composed by Jonah Strauss Sr. and played commonly at New Year's concerts. Less famous, perhaps, is the book written by Joseph Roth that goes by the same name. Roth's "The Radetzky March" is a score written to the rhythm of the glorious Austrian Empire's decline.
Jonathan Tobin, Commentary
Abbas’s actions always spoke louder than his words. This is not only the man who was Arafat’s able assistant throughout his terrorist career. Abbas is also the man who still boasts of rejecting an offer of statehood from Ehud Olmert that would have given the Palestinians sovereignty over almost all of the West Bank, Gaza and a share of Jerusalem in 2008. It was Abbas that refused to negotiate even after Netanyahu froze settlement building in 2010. When talks were restarted in 2013... Читать дальше...
Lee Smith, Weekly Standard
Traffic on the Bosphorus goes one way and then the other. One day it leads from the Black Sea to the Sea of Marmara and from there through the Dardanelles, to the Aegean and then the Mediterranean. On alternate days, the other way. Often it seems Turkish history goes like that.
Milton Ezrati, National Interest
Much in China’s economic slowdown looks reasonable, even favorable.
Sokolsky & Stronski, EurasiaNet
Advancing Washington’s priorities now requires rebooting American policy. Four changes are critical. First, the United States should prioritize its engagement with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, the regional powerhouses. With aging leaders sitting atop authoritarian-minded political systems, both countries are facing challenging, potentially unsettling political transitions. Second, Washington should recognize it shares some interests with Russia and China, and... Читать дальше...
Yanis Varoufakis, Project Syndicate
Similarly, in the case of Greece, the collapse in business confidence happened under my watch. But the cause was that our creditors, the so-called Troika (the European Commission, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund), made clear that they would close down our banking system to force our government to accept a fresh extend-and-pretend loan agreement.
Matt Gurney, National Post
In the tough economic environment of today, it’s the sort of treaty you’d think Canada would be all aboard. While the former Conservative government dragged its feet, lest they offend parochial Canadian interests — looking at you, supply managed dairy farmers — they at least had the virtue of being onboard with the deal. A re-elected Stephen Harper would have made sure Canada signed on.
Asa Bennett, Telegraph
The former Labour prime minister may feel it is his pro-European duty to offer his insights, but few voters actually trust what he has to say
Barbie Latza Nadeau, Daily Beast
Iranian President Rouhani is leading a massive commercial mission to Rome and Paris this week.
Mark Gilbert, Bloomberg View
The debate on whether Britain should remain a member of the European Union is heating up, with British bookmaker Ladbrokes predicting June as the most likely month for Prime Minister David Cameron to hold his promised referendum. The good news for pro-Europeans is that business leaders have learned the lesson from Scotland's near-miss independence vote. The bad news for everyone is that the campaigning is likely to turn nasty, just as it did in the run-up to that 2014 Scottish plebiscite.
Mark Lagon & Arch Puddington, WSJ
The world-wide slide of political rights and civil liberties continued in 2015, with a few promising signs.
Thomas Friedman, New York Times
STOCKHOLM — Now in his last year in office, President Obama is in legacy mode. He has much to be proud of. But if he doesn’t want his achievements muddied by foreign policy, he’ll spend his last year redoubling his efforts to contain the Middle East refugee crisis before it goes from a giant humanitarian problem to a giant geostrategic problem that shatters America’s most important ally: the European Union.
David Ignatius, Washington Post
Let’s say Islamic State fighters attack an Israeli military patrol along the Syrian border. They try unsuccessfully to kidnap an Israeli soldier, and they kill four others. A Jordanian border post is hit, too, and the Islamic State proclaims it has control of Daraa province in southern Syria.
Adriano Bosoni, Stratfor
The Italian government has been in a rebellious mood of late. During a war of words with the European Commission over his plan to increase spending this year, Prime Minister Matteo Renzi told Brussels "Italy is back, more solid and ambitious." In an op-ed published in The Guardian a few days later, Renzi added that "the political and cultural orthodoxy that has monopolized thinking on how Europe should be run for the last decade isn't working" and promised that "Italy... Читать дальше...
