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Новости за 21.01.2016

Real Clear World 

Iran's Hardliners Will Block Economic Reform

A. Bagherpour, Guardian
The release of 0bn in frozen assets will help the Iranian economy grow, but also leave it with less incentive to reform. The supreme leader is unlikely to allow for anything but the most superficial changes.

Real Clear World 

The Man Who Helped Trigger the Arab Spring

Clemens Hoges, Spiegel
The Arab Spring began five years ago when two men set themselves on fire in Tunisia. One of them survived his self-immolation -- and now wishes he hadn't. This is his story.

Real Clear World 

Is the U.S. Giving Up on Israel?

Ben Caspit, Al-Monitor
The unusually sharp tone of U.S. Ambassador Daniel Shapiro's criticisms of Israeli policies toward the Palestinians has many wondering what it means for the future.

Real Clear World 

Putin's Reputation Turns Radioactive

Marc Champion, Bloomberg View
It isn't often that a judge in one country accuses the president of another -- a superpower, no less -- of participating in murder. On Thursday, however, the chairman of a lengthy U.K. inquiry into the 2006 poisoning of a former Russian intelligence operative, Alexander Litvinenko, did just that.

Real Clear World 

Obama Is Poland's Only Hope

Ackerman & Kisilowski, Foreign Policy
This July, Warsaw is scheduled to host a special NATO summit. This is not a regular meeting of cabinet defense ministers, but an extraordinary session at which the heads of all member states redefine the alliance’s key strategic missions. Law and Justice sees this high-profile event as a chance to show its domestic backers that it remains a respected player on the international stage, even as it destroys constitutional government at home. Poland has concrete... Читать дальше...

Real Clear World 

Iran's New and Dangerous Moment

Dov Zakheim, The National Interest
What will the mullahs do with their newfound cornucopia? Apologists for what they invariably call "the Islamic Republic" (there are actually other states whose official names include that term—Afghanistan, for instance) are certain to claim that these monies will be applied solely to boost a sagging economy. No doubt some, perhaps most, of those funds will do so—but not all. They also are needed to accelerate Iran's ongoing thrust for regional hegemony.

Real Clear World 

Smuggling Soars as Venezuela's Economy Sinks

Girish Gupta, Reuters
In interviews with scores of smugglers and visits to more than a dozen sites - from the western village of Boca del Grita to the eastern port of Guiria and the borders with Brazil and Guyana - Reuters saw evidence of widespread unchecked smuggling. President Nicolas Maduro's government says the illicit trade is worth more than billion a year and is bleeding Venezuela dry with 30 percent of imported food, 40 percent of all goods and 100,000 barrels of oil per day smuggled out.

Real Clear World 

Hong Kong's Missing Booksellers

Lian Yi-zheng, New York Times
A Hong Kong publisher specializing in books banned in China has disappeared mysteriously, sowing fear among Hong Kongers that the Chinese government is growing bolder about encroaching on their liberties. As the saga continues to unfold, Beijing is reacting bizarrely, and in ways that suggest that the story is the extension of a long-running power struggle at the highest levels of the Chinese Communist Party.

Real Clear World 

Once Again, Europe Needs America

James Stavridis, Politico EU
Europe’s orderly, sensible, measured security structure — which made a relatively successful transition from the Cold War — is under extreme pressure today. What exists on the other side of the Pillars of Hercules is difficult to make out with any clarity, but the United States needs to help Europe chart the best possible course.

Real Clear World 

Brexit Pits Interests Against Emotion

Philip Stephens, Financial Times
An astute American foresaw Britain’s troubles in Europe long before a common market was a mere glint in the eye of Jean Monnet. Edward Stettinius, then US secretary of state, told President Franklin Roosevelt as the second world war drew towards a close in 1944, that the British would always be uncomfortable in any club that they did not lead.

Real Clear World 

Is This Iran's China Moment?

Patrick Buchanan, American Conservative
From his actions, he appears to have blessed Iran’s taking the same road on which Deng Xiaoping set out some four decades ago.




Real Clear World 

Trouble Brews in Bulgaria

Cristina Maza, World Politics Review
Many Bulgarians say their country’s democracy is in shambles.

Real Clear World 

China's Growing Stake in the Middle East

Economist
The timing of Mr Xi’s tour is tricky. Tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran are particularly high after Saudi Arabia executed a Shia cleric earlier this month and angry Iranians responded by storming the Saudi embassy in Tehran. But the lifting of Western sanctions on Iran on January 16th allowed Mr Xi to display even-handedness by visiting both countries, without upsetting Western powers. Mr Xi, like his predecessors, likes to present China as a non-interfering champion of peace. (Xinhua... Читать дальше...

Real Clear World 

Slowdown? Beijing's Elite Hadn't Noticed

Zoe Alsop, New Statesman
Even as property prices falter nationwide, glassy, open-plan co-working spaces catering to tech start-ups occupy prime real estate in the city. They have no trouble finding clients who pay above-market rents for the privilege of rubbing shoulders with their peers. Buoyed by the torrent of investment, a recent graduate with even half an idea for a start-up can, in effect, land quite a bit of cash.

Real Clear World 

ISIS Fighters Take a Pay Cut

Joshua Keating, Slate
The caliphate has indeed been going through a rough patch, losing ground to U.S.-backed Iraqi and Kurdish forces on its eastern flank, and Russian-backed Syrian regime forces in the west. As ISIS gets much of its funding from the extortion and “taxation” of people in the areas it controls, these setbacks hurt its bottom line. Attacks on ISIS’s oil reserves may also be contributing to the group’s money woes.

Real Clear World 

Taiwan's Generational Change

Hua Hsu, New Yorker
In contrast to the swaggering Chen, Tsai is mellow, cerebral, almost anti-charismatic. She has degrees from Cornell Law School and the London School of Economics, and projects cosmopolitan savvy, adding a sheen of sophistication to the D.P.P.’s traditionally provincial appeal. She ran for president in 2012, but memories of Chen’s spectacular fall vexed that first campaign. What’s more, the international community questioned her ability to deal with China, and those anxieties damaged her standing in Taiwan. Читать дальше...

Real Clear World 

Will New Nation-States Emerge?

Chris Roth, Aeon Magazine
In the Middle East, however, the game is changing. The institutional aversion to new nation-states might be a casualty of the devastating civil wars in Libya, Iraq, Yemen and, worst of all, Syria. Recall what made the anomaly of South Sudan possible in 2011: Sudan’s dictator Omar al-Bashir, convicted in absentia for crimes against humanity, was harbouring terrorists and massacring citizens. Unusually, the whole international community was content to see this one state... Читать дальше...

Real Clear World 

The Georgian Setting Ukraine's Politics Ablaze

A. Karatnycky, For. Policy
Soon, however, Saakashvili began to test the limits of what could be attained in Odessa, and started to argue that his battle against corruption was being stymied by the central government in Kiev. He also began to spend less time in his region and more in the capital, where his infectious spirit and charisma added a new vigor to Ukraine’s popular and boisterous political talk shows. Even as he vociferously denied having any higher political ambitions, Saakashvili was... Читать дальше...

Real Clear World 

Was Litvinenko Killed for Calling Putin a Pedophile?

Nico Hines, DB
The allegation—that Putin had used his position as head of the Russian intelligence service to destroy video evidence of himself having sex with underage boys—was “the climax” of an increasingly bitter personal feud between Alexander Litvinenko and the Russian president.

Real Clear World 

Put Japan's Zombie Companies Out of Their Misery

Noah Smith, BV
Faced with this kind of firepower, there is no way you can stay in the market. Nor can you expect a similar bailout -- you employ only 100 people, while Sharp employs 50,000. You fold your startup and move across the Pacific to Silicon Valley, following in the footsteps of other Japanese entrepreneurs.

Real Clear World 

China's Deeply Flawed Ascent

George Will, Washington Post
China produces an astonishing number of astonishing numbers, including this: In the 20th century, the United States made automobiles mass-consumption items, requiring prodigious road building. China, however, poured more concrete for roads and other construction between 2011 and 2013 than the United States did in the 20th century. This fact is emblematic of China’s remarkable success. And is related to its current difficulties, including its 2015 growth rate (6.9 percent), its slowest in 25 years.

Real Clear World 

Russia's Floundering State-Nation

Maxim Trudolyubov, Wilson Center
It has never occurred to the Kremlin that a day may come when its smoothly running state machine would have nothing to redistribute.

Real Clear World 

Eastern Europe Now

Joel Weickgenant, RealClearWorld
"In Europe's Shadow" provides a portrait of a country that flies beneath most people's radar and yet in many ways serves as a microcosm of the region at large, and a key to understanding it. Kaplan's relationship with Romania is intensely personal. The author was, as he described himself, "drifting in my late 20s" and reaching the end of his service with the Israel Defense Forces, when, aspiring to build a resume as a journalist, he bought a ticket to Ceausescu's Romania. Читать дальше...


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