Polymarket withholds payouts as debate erupts over definition of Venezuela ‘invasion’

Polymarket is reportedly refusing to pay out on bets related to whether the U.S. military will invade Venezuela, citing discrepancies in terminology.

The operator is currently disputing the mission to capture the former president, Nicolas Maduro, who represented an invasion of Venezuela, and the company will only settle a contract if the military actually takes control of the country.

One successful trader won $400,000 following Maduro’s capture after betting more than $32,000 that the former president would be removed from power by the end of January.

This was trading at an average of 7 cents before the market eventually paid out at 100 cents when he was flown out of the country.

As such, the mystery trader won $400,000, but there is controversy surrounding the bet regarding the definition of “invade.”

Polymarket states that it will resolve the “Will the US invade Venezuela by . . .?” prediction contract if the country “commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela” by one of three dates.

Because it didn't happen. There is no scam pic.twitter.com/FajenS6TyE

— tenadome (@tenad0me) January 7, 2026

A total of $10.5 million has been wagered on the Polymarket contract predicting a US invasion of Venezuela. Most of these are on the deadline of January 31, while the rest are based on contracts that end in March and December.

Polymarket isn’t the only prediction market to attract controversy lately, as Kalshi is facing a backlash.

Kalshi appears to have backtracked on one NFL wager

A few days ago, a tweet from analyst Dustin Gouker showed that Kalshi failed to pay out a winning bet on the San Francisco 49ers winning over 10.5 games during the 2025 regular NFL season.

wtf…people who bet 49ers win total correctly were only reimbursed cost and not winnings when it was graded wrong? And they won’t just eat it? pic.twitter.com/lsbzEyAt6Z

— Dustin Gouker (@DustinGouker) January 7, 2026

“People who bet 49ers win total correctly were only reimbursed cost and not winnings when it was graded wrong? And they won’t just eat it?” Gouker wrote on X earlier this week.

The 49ers won 12 matches, but the customer was only reimbursed rather than the bet being settled as a win.

This was me in the discord. Absolutely insane. If anyone has any more information about what I can do to get Kalshi to pay out, DMs are open https://t.co/4kqzOtoqRa

— Hayden (@capdcrd2) January 7, 2026

Kalshi stated that “these markets were erroneously determined early, so everyone was reimbursed cost plus fees.”

Prediction Markets are not treated with the same scrutiny as regular sportsbooks. Following these tweets by Gouker, Kalshi has reversed the outcome and has paid out on those winning bets.

Featured Image: Polymarket

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