With the first vote-by-mail ballots in Florida’s general election scheduled to be sent to overseas and military veterans in just a few weeks, time is running for state Democrats to draw much help from outside groups and political committees during this election cycle.
But Democratic National Committee Chairman Jamie Harrison is doubling down on his previous statements that if he sees indications that more financial resources could help either at the presidential, Senate, or congressional level this fall in Florida, it could still happen.
“I sat down with the chair [FDP head Nikki Fried] just the other day looking at ways — more proof points — to show that this is a state that we can possibly win. And so, as we get those proof points which help make the case for more investment, more investment on the ground, more investments in terms of advertisement and the like,” Harrison told the Phoenix in a phone interview Tuesday.
Harrison has made similar comments this year, but Florida Dems have yet to realize any significant backing from groups dedicated to electing Democrats this year. In June, he told reporters in Tallahassee that “we’ll look and see what the numbers are” before committing to help.
The DNC chair campaigned with U.S. Senate candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in Lee County on Monday. Harrison believes the former U.S. representative from South Florida has a “good shot” at knocking off GOP incumbent Rick Scott in November, and said he will talk up her candidacy to groups that could provide her with financial support.
“Listen, I think Debbie has a shot,” he said. “She has a really, really good shot. She’s a great candidate and I got a chance to hear her on the stump yesterday as we went through the southern part of the state, and she and I are going to link up together in the next few weeks.
“We have to tell folks — we need to invest in Debbie’s campaign. She has a shot. Rick Scott has never won a race in which he’s won by a large margin. He is very unpopular. Debbie, when you get to hear her story, you hear that her family was the victim of gun violence, to hear her story, immigrant coming into this country, is so compelling.
“And so, we’ve got to do what we can to get her message out about how she wants to lead and transform Florida, for all of Florida’s people. And I think she has a shot. One of the best offensive opportunities that we have in the country.”
Although Scott has never won a statewide election in Florida by more than a percentage point, he has consistently led Mucarsel-Powell in public opinion polls throughout the year, and he maintains a nearly six percentage point edge overall, according to top-level polls curated at RealClearPolitics.
That could be attributable to the fact that, unlike his other two runs for governor and one run for Senate in 2018, Scott is now running in a state where Republicans enjoy a substantial voter-registration lead over Democrats — more than 1 million voters.
“What I tell people is, just 10 years ago Democrats had, what, a million-plus advantage in terms of voter registration? But Republicans still won races. Because it’s not just about voter registration, it’s about voter turnout,” Harrison said.
“It’s about who’s actually turning out at the ballot box. You can have all the voter registrations you want, but if you don’t turn those people out, then it doesn’t matter, you’re going to lose the election. So, for us, let’s focus and concentrate on, yes, registration is important. But the best thing that we can do with our time and our energy resources is focus on turning out our people. If we turn them out, we’re going to win this race.”
Fact check: In 2010, when Scott defeated Democrat Alex Sink by 1.2 points for governor, there were nearly 569,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans. In 2014, when Scott ran for re-election for governor, and he defeated Democrat Charlie Crist by exactly one percentage point, there were nearly 445,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans.
And in 2018, when Scott defeated Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson for U.S Senate by just 10,033 votes out of than 8 million votes cast — a margin of just 0.2% that required a recount — there were still 257,000 more Democrats than Republicans registered in the state.
Harrison is putting his faith in independent, or nonparty-affiliated voters as they are referred to in Florida, who make up more than 26% of the electorate, to rally to the Democrats.
“I believe that part of the Democratic Party’s strategy has to also appeal to independents who don’t believe we should be restricting women’s rights to control their own bodies. Who don’t believe in banning books in this country. Who don’t believe in attacking folks because they’re LGBTQ or because of their different religion or different background,” Harrison said.
“Those are people whose values align with us, and so it’s important that we reach out to them. And if you create that coalition, that is a winning coalition in this state, and so that has to be the strategy of the Democratic Party.”
Florida Phoenix is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Florida Phoenix maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Michael Moline for questions: info@floridaphoenix.com. Follow Florida Phoenix on Facebook and X.
