Nebraska is not typically a state political analysts think about as a battleground. It's a safely Republican stronghold, and the only electoral quirk that makes it notable in national contests is that it splits its electoral votes by congressional district, sometimes letting Democrats get an elector from Omaha.
But this year, Nebraska could come into play in another way: Republicans face a surprisingly tight Senate race there.
The cause of this, wrote David Faris for Slate, is Dan Osborn — an independent Navy veteran and steamfitter who is running a Senate campaign against longtime incumbent Republican Deb Fischer with the backing of the United Auto Workers.
"While Osborn remains a long shot, he is likely to force Republicans to pour some money and resources into a race that they should have been able to win effortlessly as they try to capitalize on 2024’s GOP-friendly Senate map," wrote Faris. "And if Osborn wins, or even puts a credible scare into Fischer, his campaign could serve as a template for how to dislodge Republicans from statewide monopolies in places where Democrats have long struggled to compete."
Osborn, for his part, is spurning a direct association with Democrats in this campaign, and holds a unique blend of views that cuts across party lines, taking a Republican-sounding line on gun rights and border security while siding with Democrats on abortion and labor rights. Recent polling shows the race as being extremely tight, with multiple polls showing Fischer with just a 1 or 2-point lead.
There are reasons the Fischer campaign may be genuinely worried, wrote Faris — for instance, "Fischer "refuses to debate him — a clear sign that she’s worried about what might happen if voters get a longer look at him. Last week he 'debated' an empty chair at a Grand Island brewery while Fischer complained about how debates don’t leave the speakers enough time for any nuance."
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Similar previous campaigns in which Democrats bow out to let an independent consolidate in a red state have resulted in significant overperformances by that independent — for instance, in Utah in 2022, independent Evan McMullin cleared the field against GOP Sen. Mike Lee and held him to just an 11-point victory, far narrower than the usual runaway wins the GOP sees there.
The potential lesson here, if Osborn shows similar strength, is that Democrats — who had tried to partner with Osborn only to be rebuffed — could make some states much more competitive by laying low and letting independents take a shot.
Ultimately, it's still unlikely that Osborn defeats Fischer, wrote Faris — but "if Osborn can point the way to some semblance of competitiveness in deep-red federal races, he will have accomplished more than most Nebraska Democrats could ever have hoped for."
