A big shakeup is expected to happen in the presidential campaign on Friday — but there's some uncertainty over how much it could impact the race.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the environmental lawyer, talk show host, and conspiracy theorist who is descended from the Democratic Party dynasty of the Kennedy family, reportedly plans to end his presidential campaign at the end of the week and is considering endorsing former President Donald Trump.
According to analyst Philip Bump of The Washington Post, the result of such a move isn't easy to predict.
"From Kennedy’s perspective, the move makes sense," wrote Bump. "He doesn’t have much support in national polling and has struggled to make it onto state ballots. But the single-digit support he has might be useful to Trump or to Vice President Kamala Harris, given the closeness of the race.
"Why not see if either more-viable candidate wants to make commitments aligned with Kennedy’s agenda in exchange for his voters?"
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Theoretically this could shift what is already a razor-thin race between Trump and Harris.
But it's not that simple, Bump wrote.
For starters, many left-leaning supporters bailed on Kennedy after Harris took over from President Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket. And many remaining Kennedy supporters aren't fans of Trump, either — recent polling shows 41 percent view him unfavorably.
"What many of them might do, then, is simply stay home," wrote Bump.
"Perhaps the most important point of consideration here, again, is that there simply aren’t that many Kennedy supporters. If Trump picks up fully half of them, it adds a few points to his national support and, according to 538’s average, still has him trailing Harris," Bump wrote.
He concluded that, while an exit from the race could be the smart move for Kennedy, "how good a move it might be for Trump remains to be seen."
