OMAHA — A new poll in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District shows Vice President Kamala Harris has reinvigorated local Democrats, infusing them with renewed hope.
The survey by conservative pollster Remington Research Group taken Aug. 14-17 indicates that Harris leads former President Donald Trump in the district 50%-42%, with a 3.8% margin of error.
The poll indicated minimal support for third-party candidates, including 2% support for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., 1% for Cornel West and less support for Jill Stein and Chase Oliver.
The Harris campaign had no immediate comment.
Thousands of Nebraska Democrats gathered Saturday to hear Harris’ running mate, Nebraska native and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, speak, just before the start of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.
Walz said that Trump and his running mate, Ohio U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance, don’t know Nebraska and that Nebraskans want a campaign focused on the future and not the past. Vance is visiting Omaha on Wednesday for a fundraiser.
Jane Kleeb, the chair of the Nebraska Democratic Party, said she had seen at least one other poll recently that indicated Harris was leading outside of the margin of error. Kleeb said the new energy is evident in upticks in fundraising, volunteers and local interest in the campaign.
“It’s always obviously a good feeling when polls match what you’re seeing with your own eyes,” Kleeb said from the convention in Chicago. “There’s no question that CD2 is more in line with the values and vision of Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. The poll numbers are definitely tracking what we’re seeing on the ground.”
The survey’s 8-percentage-point gap at the top resembles the recent voting record of the swing district, including the 52%-46% 2nd District win for President Joe Biden in 2020.
But it is the widest gap in five 2nd District presidential polls the Examiner has reviewed during the 2024 cycle. Most showed Trump narrowly leading or narrowly trailing Biden.
Of them, this is the first to name Harris since she replaced Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket and reset the race, leaving it closer to a tossup nationally.
Still, the poll of 656 likely 2nd District voters identified some differences between the electorate and the candidates on issues that the pollster said might help Trump close the gap.
Chief among them is the issue of immigration, where 2nd District voters narrowly sided with Trump over Harris. Another potential issue advantage for Trump was inflation.
Voters in the 2nd District appeared to give Harris higher marks on the economy, led by Douglas County. Suburban Sarpy County and rural Saunders County favored Trump on the issue.
Republican National Committee spokeswoman Liz Huston said, “Nebraska voters are eager for a return to President Trump’s successful policies that made our state safe and affordable.”
She said voters would reject Harris’ approach to the economy.
“As the election gets closer, the momentum behind President Donald J. Trump is only growing,” Huston said. “Nebraskans want common sense.”
In the 2nd District U.S. House race between Republican U.S. Rep. Don Bacon and Democratic State Sen. Tony Vargas of Omaha, the poll showed Bacon narrowly leading Vargas, 46%-44%. That result, which is within the margin of error, tracks with the internal polling that both House campaigns have shared in recent months showing each of them with narrow leads.
The Bacon campaign said it isn’t surprised to see a poll showing the incumbent outperforming the top of the ticket because the same thing happened in 2020. In a statement, the campaign called Bacon “the most effective bipartisan Republican in Congress.”
Vargas’ campaign had no immediate comment. Kleeb said nearly every poll in the district shows the House race in a statistical dead heat.
Trump has previously praised the pollster, calling it “highly respected” during a 2016 appearance in Ohio. The former president often seeks to discredit polls that show him losing.
Remington Research Group used a mix of live calls to cell and landline phones and texts seeking digital responses, said president Titus Bond.
Nebraska Republican Party Chairman Eric Underwood speaks at the grand opening of the Trump campaign’s grand opening of its joint office with the Republican National Committee. (Aaron Sanderford/Nebraska Examiner)
Bond said the presidential race is in a unique “sugar high” for a late-arriving candidate in Harris, who is about to see a bounce from the Democratic convention.
Democrats appear to have a new edge in voter intensity with Harris in the race, he said. Her message is resonating, he said, but the campaign will eventually return to issues.
“When you look at the Bacon number and the issue numbers, she’s overperforming right now,” Bond said. “My gut tells me we’re headed to a competitive race.”
Opinions in the 2nd District matter because Nebraska awards a single Electoral College vote to the winner of the presidential popular vote in each congressional district.
State-by-state polling increasingly appears to hint at the possibility of the 2nd District breaking a 268-268 Electoral College tie, the pollster said.
“There is a path for Nebraska 2 to be ground zero,” he said.
The Harris campaign and its supporters have reserved $3.7 million in 2nd District TV advertising time for this fall. Trump has not yet reserved any.
The Trump campaign has said it intends to buy ad time. Donors consider Nebraska’s 2nd District a cheaper media market than most for a national investment.
Both presidential campaigns are building ground-level campaign staffs, supplemented by volunteers and staffers.
Trump and his team has pushed to change Nebraska state law and move Republican-led Nebraska to winner-take-all instead of splitting its electoral votes. Nebraska and Maine are the only two states to split their votes.
Gov. Jim Pillen said last week he is still willing to call a special session to move to winner-take-all if GOP leaders in the officially nonpartisan Legislature can find the votes.
State lawmakers in blue-leaning Maine have told the Examiner they would consider a change if Nebraska tries to act on its own.
The 2nd District has bounced between Republicans and Democrats in each of the last four presidential elections.
Axiom Strategies said a client paid for the 2nd District poll but would not disclose who. It said the client is not affiliated with any presidential campaign.
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