A political consultant and author of "The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat," avers in a column in The Hill on Monday that an October surprise is Biden's best hope to win the November presidential election, following the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump.
Noting that the race is neck and neck, with Biden slightly behind in recent polling, writer Douglas Schoen argues that only a seminal event could turn the race decisively in one candidate's favor.
"What, then, could cause a decisive shift in Biden or Trump’s favor?" Schoen writes. "Quite simply, the answer is an outside event. Or, as it’s otherwise known, an October Surprise."
Specifically, Schoen believes that a foreign policy success could hand Biden the election.
"Biden appears to recognize that an October Surprise, handled well, would be decisive," Schoen writes. "During Thursday’s press conference concluding the NATO summit, he spent much of the time on foreign policy, setting up for a breakthrough in either Asia, Europe, or the Middle East.
"In particular, the war between Israel and Hamas could end, potentially even as part of a larger regional peace deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia," Schoen continues. "That would be considerably more monumental than when Trump orchestrated the Abraham Accords in the final days before the 2020 election."
"As the Washington Post reported on Wednesday, there appears to be a breakthrough on a temporary cease-fire in Gaza that may turn permanent," he adds. "While this is no guarantee, if Biden were able to secure a stop in the fighting that lasted through the fall, it would be a significant boost for his embattled campaign."
President Biden's approval ratings have been hovering in the low 40s for much of his presidency so far. According to the FiveThirtyEight presidential approval tracker, Biden's approval rating as of August 2023 stands at 42.1%. This relatively low approval number reflects the significant challenges and headwinds Biden has faced, including persistent inflation, economic uncertainty, and divisive political conflicts.
When looking at polls for the 2024 presidential election, Biden trails Donald Trump in most hypothetical head-to-head matchup surveys conducted so far. A recent Harvard-Harris poll from July 2023 showed Trump leading Biden by 4 percentage points (46% to 42%) among registered voters. However, Biden does fare better in some swing state polls, signaling the election could be extremely close if both were to be the nominees.
Concludes Schoen, "To that end, given that Biden’s and Trump’s strengths and weaknesses are familiar to voters, it is more likely that a truly pivotal October Surprise comes in the form of a foreign policy development that either drastically helps or harms Biden."
However, events could go the other way. The war could escalate with the outbreak of a true second front in Lebanon, given Hezbollah’s repeated attacks on Israel. If a full-scale war breaks out, particularly if Iran intervenes on behalf of Hezbollah, the U.S. may be drawn into a direct conflict with Iran and a significant war in the Middle East, for which Biden would be held responsible.
At the same time, events in Asia could quickly spiral out of control if China or even North Korea thinks it would face less resistance to an invasion of Taiwan or South Korea, respectively, under a weakened Biden than under Trump.
