Mass shooters don’t just snap — whether it’s changes to their behavior or personality, comments or jokes about self harm and violence, or obsessing over past mass shootings and perpetrators, they leave behind a trail of warning signs that can sometimes span years.
That’s according to Shohini Sinha, the special agent in charge of the Salt Lake City FBI Field Office, who briefed reporters Monday on the agency’s new Prevent Mass Violence campaign, which outlines the behavior often exhibited by people who carry out mass shootings and other violent incidents on a large scale.
The number of mass casualty events — defined by the National Institutes of Health as a disaster, either man-made or natural, that overwhelms local management agencies and the health care system — are on the rise, said Sinha.
In intentional, human-caused incidents, Sinha said the perpetrator often displays noticeable red flags.
“Active shooters, mass shooters, do not just snap. They consider, they plan and they prepare for their attacks over time, sometimes as long as years. Often, people around them see what’s happening,” she said.
Making comments and jokes about self harm, suicide, violent thoughts, plans or fantasies are among the red flags, she said — so are changes in vocabulary or personality in a way that “reflects a hardened point of view or new sense of purpose associated with violent extremist causes.”
“Unusual” difficulty dealing with stress, viewing violence as a solution to problems, isolation from friends and family, and obsessing over prior attacks or attackers are also on the FBI’s list of concerning behavior.
“If you notice somebody doing any of these things, it’s important that you talk to somebody you trust,” Sinha said. “What is important is that you tell somebody, because we can’t do anything about it if we don’t know.”
There isn’t behavior that’s particularly unique to Utah or the Mountain West to be aware of, she told reporters. Asked about incidents that happened locally, Sinha pointed to an active shooting in May 2023, where Salt Lake City police responded to 17th South River Park.
According to a probable cause affidavit filed in Utah’s 3rd District Court, Steven Matthew Macias admitted to drinking alcohol at the park, then shooting and injuring one of the men he was with.
According to court documents, Macias then began shooting into a crowd watching a soccer game, admitting “he was aware of the people around him and he had no regard for anything.” He struck one bystander in the chest, critically injuring them.
During his interview with officers, Macias “admitted he shot and killed his neighbor in Texas in January 2023 because his neighbor had upset him,” according to the affidavit.
According to court filings, Macias was charged with 25 felonies, though most were dismissed after he struck a plea deal. In June, he was sentenced to five years to life in the Utah State Prison for two counts of felony discharge of a firearm. He is also facing charges in Texas related to the death of his neighbor.
Another incident in 2021 is more of a success story — after receiving a tip from the FBI, the Weber County Sheriff ‘s Office arrested a 15-year-old Weber High School student who had planned to make explosives and shoot people in what she called “a Columbine-style mass casualty event,” according to the Standard-Examiner.
“I need guns. And I need bullets. And I need alcohol. And I need bombs. … And I need to kill all of these f—-,” the girl wrote in her diary, according to the Standard-Examiner. She also described her plans via text, telling someone the shooting would be her way to “make my mark on society.”
Rhetoric like that is almost exactly what’s spelled out in the FBI’s public awareness campaign — referring to prior attacks like Columbine, creating a plan, and viewing violence as a means to an end.
That behavior is a throughline in most cases of mass violence anywhere in the world, said Sinha, who worked in the FBI’s counterterrorism division and served in places like Guantanamo Bay and Baghdad.
“The indicators aren’t particular to one specific motivation or ideology. So you could take that list that I read off and overlay it to somebody who is motivated by international terrorism, or domestic terrorism, or just plain old violence,” she said.
The FBI gets thousands of tips concerning potential mass shooters. Some are credible, but many are not, and Sinha described the process as a “science and an art.”
Investigators first look at all available information. If it meets the U.S. Attorney General’s guidelines, the FBI will begin an investigation, often looking at open sourced information like social media, to determine whether the person is “a little misguided and saying things that are not proven, or are they actually making a threat,” Sinha said.
If you believe someone is planning violence, contact local law enforcement or your local FBI field office, or report it at tips.fbi.gov.
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