MANILA, Philippines – The low pressure area outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility developed into a tropical depression at 8 pm on Sunday, September 15, while the LPA inside PAR may soon follow suit.

In an advisory issued at 11 pm on Sunday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said the newly formed tropical depression was located 2,165 kilometers east of southeastern Luzon, moving west northwest at 20 kilometers per hour (km/h).

It has maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h and gustiness of up to 55 km/h.

The weather bureau said the tropical depression may become a tropical storm by Monday afternoon or evening, September 16, while still outside PAR.

“The possibility of further intensification is not ruled out, considering that the weather disturbance is still over the Pacific Ocean,” added PAGASA.

The tropical cyclone could enter PAR around Tuesday evening, September 17, then exit PAR around Wednesday morning, September 18. 

But PAGASA said changes are likely in the estimated times of entry and exit, depending on the “erratic movement” of the weather disturbance.

For now, the latest forecast shows this tropical cyclone may follow a path similar to that of Tropical Storm Ferdie (Bebinca), which only stayed inside PAR for several hours as it moved near the PAR northeastern boundary. Ferdie remained far from Philippine landmass, but it enhanced the southwest monsoon or habagat.

As for the LPA inside PAR, it now has a high chance of also becoming a tropical depression within 24 hours, PAGASA said on Sunday evening. If it does, its local name would be Gener.

The LPA was located 430 kilometers east of Casiguran, Aurora, at 8 pm on Sunday.

Its trough or extension has already begun bringing rain to parts of Northern Luzon.

Sunday evening, September 15, to Monday evening, September 16

• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 millimeters): Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela

Monday evening, September 16, to Tuesday evening, September 17

• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Apayao

Tuesday evening, September 17, to Wednesday evening, September 18

• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Apayao

Floods and landslides are possible.

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In addition, rain from the southwest monsoon continues to affect many areas in the country. The worst-hit regions and provinces are the following:

Sunday evening, September 15, to Monday evening, September 16

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): northern part of Palawan, Occidental Mindoro, Aklan, Antique, Negros Occidental
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate, rest of Mimaropa, rest of Western Visayas, rest of Negros Island Region

Monday evening, September 16, to Tuesday evening, September 17

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): northern part of Palawan, Occidental Mindoro, Aklan, Antique, Negros Occidental
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate, rest of Mimaropa, rest of Western Visayas, rest of Negros Island Region

Tuesday evening, September 17, to Wednesday evening, September 18

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): northern part of Palawan, Occidental Mindoro, Aklan, Antique
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Zambales, Bataan, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate, rest of Mimaropa, rest of Western Visayas, Negros Island Region

Other areas in Southern Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao — including Metro Manila — are also seeing rain showers and thunderstorms because of the southwest monsoon. The rain can be moderate to at times heavy, while thunderstorms might be severe.

PAGASA reiterated that floods and landslides are likely. – Rappler.com