Tropical Storm Carina slightly intensifies over Philippine Sea

MANILA, Philippines – Tropical Storm Carina (Gaemi) slightly strengthened over the Philippine Sea before dawn on Sunday, July 21, with its maximum sustained winds increasing from 65 kilometers per hour to 75 km/h.

The tropical storm’s gustiness is now up to 90 km/h from the previous 80 km/h.

As of 4 am on Sunday, Carina was located 490 kilometers east of Casiguran, Aurora, moving west northwest at only 10 km/h.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its 5 am bulletin that Carina is still expected to remain far from the country’s landmass.

The tropical cyclone’s outer rainbands, however, may affect some northernmost areas in the next two days. Floods and landslides are possible.

Monday, July 22

• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 millimeters): northeastern part of mainland Cagayan, eastern part of Babuyan Islands

Tuesday, July 23

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Batanes
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Babuyan Islands

PAGASA added that it might raise Signal No. 1 for extreme Northern Luzon and the northeastern part of mainland Cagayan by Sunday evening or Monday, July 22, “in anticipation of strong winds associated with Carina.”

Carina is still projected to strengthen into a severe tropical storm by Monday, and into a typhoon by Tuesday, July 23.

“Rapid intensification within the forecast period is possible,” the weather bureau warned.

Carina is also enhancing the southwest monsoon or habagat.

In a separate advisory at 11 pm on Saturday, July 20, PAGASA provided this rainfall forecast for the enhanced southwest monsoon:

Sunday, July 21

• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Zambales, Bataan, Kalayaan Islands

Monday, July 22

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Occidental Mindoro, Zambales, Bataan, Benguet, Pangasinan, La Union
• Moderate to occasionally heavy rain (50-100 mm): Abra, Cavite, Batangas, northern part of Palawan, rest of Ilocos Region

Tuesday, July 23

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Occidental Mindoro, Zambales, Bataan, Benguet, Pangasinan, La Union
• Moderate to occasionally heavy rain (50-100 mm): Metro Manila, northern part of Palawan, Cavite, Batangas, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bulacan, Abra, rest of Ilocos Region

The weather bureau warned that floods and landslides are likely in areas to be affected by the enhanced southwest monsoon.

The southwest monsoon will also bring strong to gale-force gusts to the following areas:

Sunday, July 21

• Kalayaan Islands

Monday, July 22

• Zambales, Bataan, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Western Visayas

Tuesday, July 23

• Ilocos Region, Zambales, Bataan, Aurora, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Western Visayas

In addition, Carina and the enhanced southwest monsoon will cause moderate seas in the northern seaboard of Northern Luzon, western seaboards of Central Luzon and Southern Luzon, and eastern seaboard of the country on Sunday.

Waves are 1 to 2.5 meters high, so small boats must take precautionary measures, or if possible, avoid sailing altogether.

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Carina is seen to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Wednesday, July 24, while moving near the islands of Japan’s Ryukyu archipelago.

It is the Philippines’ third tropical cyclone for 2024. The second, Tropical Depression Butchoy, left PAR on Saturday morning.

Butchoy and Carina both developed on Friday evening, July 19. By that time, Butchoy was already moving away from Philippine landmass, with no direct impact. But as a low pressure area, it had affected parts of the country earlier in the week, alongside the southwest monsoon.

PAGASA previously estimated there may be two or three tropical cyclones in July. – Rappler.com