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Both the Philadelphia Phillies and Aaron Nola have indicated a desire to continue their relationship, but at least some in the sport think that the former first-round pick has made his final start in red pinstripes.
According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, there’s a belief in league circles that Nola will depart in free agency, while president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and the Phillies will end up pivoting to Blake Snell to replace him.
“He [managing partner John Middleton] wouldn’t mind bringing back Nola, but they were four years and about $100 million apart in their negotiations last winter, and it’s highly unlikely the gap will completely close.
“GMs believe that the Phillies will let Nola walk, and will turn their attention to Blake Snell, who’s about to win his second Cy Young Award.”
It would be an interesting pivot, because Snell is unquestionably coming off of a better season than that of Nola. Snell went 14-9 with a 2.25 ERA and 3.44 FIP across 180 innings for the San Diego Padres in 2023, and is considered the favorite to win the NL Cy Young Award. Snell previously won the AL Cy Young Award while pitching with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2018, so if he does indeed win the senior circuit’s version this year, he would become the seventh player in MLB history to claim the honor in both leagues, joining Gaylord Perry, Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Max Scherzer and Roy Halladay.
Nola has two top-five finishes in NL Cy Young Award voting on his resume (2018 and 2022), but won’t be adding a third in 2023. Across 193 2/3 innings pitched, Nola posted a 4.46 ERA and 4.03 FIP, surrendering a career-high 32 home runs.
With that said — despite a disappointing outing in Game 6 of the NLCS — Nola was largely excellent in the Phillies 2023 postseason run. In four starts, Nola went 3-1 with a 2.35 ERA, helping the Phillies to reach the NLCS for the second consecutive season.
Additionally, Nola has typically been much more of a workhorse than Snell. Nola has three seasons of 200+ innings on his resume, and five where he’s logged 180 2/3 innings pitched or more. Snell logged 180 innings in 2023, and exactly 180 2/3 frames in 2018. On no other occasion has he pitched more than 130 innings in a season. Since the start of the 2018 season, Nola is second only to Gerrit Cole with 1,065 1/3 innings pitched. Snell is 30th with 774 1/3 innings pitched over the same span.
It is possible that the Phillies would be hesitant to commit close to $200 million to Nola as the 30-year-old is coming off of a down season. But Snell will turn 31 in December, and a pair of unnamed experts predicted to Jon Heyman of The New York Post that he will get at least $180 million in free agency himself.
There are also MLB Draft concerns to consider here. Assuming Snell receives and rejects a one-year/$20.325 million qualifying offer from the Padres — which is a formality — it would cost the Phillies a second-round pick, a fifth-round pick and $1 million in international bonus pool money to sign the lefty because they paid the competitive balance tax in 2023.
But because the Phillies paid the tax this past season, they wouldn’t recoup the same return if Nola declines the qualifying offer — which he will — and signs with another team. The Phillies would get a compensation pick in the 2024 MLB Draft after the fourth round if Nola departs in free agency.
None of this is to say that the Phillies shouldn’t consider alternatives to Nola in free agency. But someone like Jordan Montomgery wouldn’t be eligible for a qualifying offer because the St. Louis Cardinals traded him to the Texas Rangers during the 2023 season, and he would also likely be cheaper financially than Snell. Japanese star Yoshinobu Yamamoto may cost as much or more as Nola or Snell, but the Phillies wouldn’t have to surrender draft compensation to sign him. And there’s still the possibility of the trade market — which could feature stars such as former NL Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes — although that would involve giving up young pieces of value and eventually signing him to a lucrative extension.
