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The lack of clarity surrounding Andrew Painter and his tender right elbow is keeping everyone on edge.
Even if the next update on Painter’s health is a positive one, it might be difficult to envision a path for the 19-year-old to make the Phillies’ Opening Day roster.
The Phillies say multiple arms are battling for the No. 5 spot outside of Painter and Bailey Falter, but in reality, Falter is likely the club’s fifth starter if Painter is not ready. That’s not a knock on Michael Plassmeyer or Cristopher Sánchez, who will be needed at some point this season.
Outside of the rotation, the Phillies still need to figure out who will occupy the final spot on the pitching staff and two additional bench spots. Will they open the season with a six-man rotation? Assuming everyone stays healthy, seven relievers are locks to be on the Opening Day roster. More than a dozen arms, including Rule 5 selection Noah Song, are competing for that 13th and final spot on the pitching staff.
Edmundo Sosa, Josh Harrison and Garrett Stubbs are locks for the bench. One of the other two spots will go to someone who can play center field unless Sosa proves he can be a viable backup to Brandon Marsh at that spot. Darick Hall could snag the last spot if he mashes.
Anyway, here’s Phillies Nation’s second 26-man Opening Day roster projection of 2023.
Starting Pitchers: Aaron Nola (RHP), Zack Wheeler (RHP), Ranger Suárez (LHP), Taijuan Walker (RHP) and Bailey Falter (LHP)
Even without Painter, this is a pretty formidable group. Suárez and Walker are pitching in the World Baseball Classic, so it will be interesting to see how built up they are in the early going. If I were Rob Thomson, Aaron Nola would be my Opening Day starter.
There’s a lot of talk surrounding the possibility of a six-man rotation. The Phillies do not necessarily have to start with a six-man rotation to begin the season due to the off days baked into the schedule. Look for Thomson to utilize a six man during long stretches without off days this season.
Relief Pitchers: Seranthony Domínguez (RHP), José Alvarado (LHP), Gregory Soto (LHP), Craig Kimbrel (RHP), Matt Strahm (LHP) Connor Brogdon (RHP), Andrew Bellatti (RHP) and Nick Nelson (RHP)
Nick Nelson led the Phillies in innings pitched out of the bullpen during the regular season in 2022. Over 68 2/3 innings, his ERA was 4.85, but his FIP was a surprisingly low 3.04. He was much worse in the second half than he was in the first. The Phillies can option him to Triple A, but it may just be best to stick with the familiar and have Nelson be the multi-inning guy. He’s totally fine if he’s the last guy in the bullpen.
As previously mentioned, a dozen or so names are technically competing for this spot, but here are a few others to watch.
Other than that, the Phillies should be very happy with this group. If they can stay healthy and avoid prolong stretches of command issues, this could be a top five bullpen in the sport.
Catchers (2): J.T. Realmuto and Garrett Stubbs
Both Realmuto and Stubbs were top 10 among catchers in pop time to second base last season, according to Statcast. Having that athleticism behind the plate is vital with the pickoff limits and bigger bases.
Infielders: Rhys Hoskins, Bryson Stott, Alec Bohm, Trea Turner, Edmundo Sosa, Josh Harrison and Darick Hall
Darick Hall posted an .865 OPS against right handed pitching in 2022. Slotting him in the cleanup spot lengthens the lineup and Hall, like Kyle Schwarber, should benefit from the new shift restrictions.
Overall, the immediate infield depth is strong. Sosa and Harrison are two guys you wouldn’t mind holding down an everyday role for a couple weeks at a time if a starter was dealing with an injury. The depth beyond this group of seven is shaky. It wouldn’t be surprising if Scott Kingery, who is in the final guaranteed year of his six-year, $24 million contract, makes his way into the group at some point this season.
Outfielders: Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh, Nick Castellanos and Dalton Guthrie
The depth beyond the starting three could be better. This is where the Nick Maton and Matt Vierling swap for Gregory Soto hurts. Harrison can play the corner outfield spots and Sosa is auditioning to be an option in center field. Jake Cave and Símon Muzziotti are options in the outfield and will both likely contribute this season, but the Phillies are probably better off having Hall be the lefty bat off the bench.
There’s going to be a lot of roster churn with this group. The hope is that there’s stability in center with Marsh. Marsh, Vierling, Muzziotti, Roman Quinn, Mickey Moniak, Odúbel Herrera, Oscar Mercado and Bradley Zimmer all spent time in center for the Phillies in 2022.
The Phillies are also hoping Harper is back in right field by the end of the season. Once he’s healed, the Phillies probably don’t have to worry too much about outfield depth.
