Season previews are asking questions, we’ll take a stab at responding
The NHL’s main website put the spotlight on the Penguins yesterday for season previews and fantasy implications. They asked some questions, and we will answer them!
1. Is there enough support for Sidney Crosby?
Crosby is entering the final season of a 12-year, $104.4 million contract ($8.7 million average annual value) at 37 years old and remains likely to sign a new contract to stay in Pittsburgh.
It’s less certain if the Penguins can complement their captain and face of the franchise.
Crosby led Pittsburgh with 94 points (42 goals, 52 assists) in 82 games last season, ahead of fellow center Evgeni Malkin (67 points; 27 goals, 40 assists). Malkin, 38, has had a slight regression from his most dominant seasons but remains part of a productive center pair with Crosby that has led the Penguins to the Stanley Cup three times (2009, 2016, 2017) entering their 19th season as teammates.
But Crosby and Malkin aren’t the issue. Crosby (42), forward Bryan Rust (28), Malkin (27) and forward Jake Guentzel (22), who was traded to the Carolina Hurricanes on March 7 and now is with the Tampa Bay Lightning, scored 119 of Pittsburgh’s 253 goals last season (47.0 percent).
The answer to this question is almost surely no, and it was done by design. Pittsburgh took on $6 million in cap hits this year to acquire Kevin Hayes and Cody Glass, mostly because they also got future draft pick compensation to do so. In years past, that cap space would have gone to better NHL players to help Crosby, like Vladimir Tarasenko, whom the Pens were out-bidded on in free agency as a result of not having cap space.
Because of that, the top-six forward group is underwhelming. Bryan Rust is solid in his role as Crosby’s top new deputy but then the rest of the group has questions. Now this outlook has potentially changed for the better with the addition of Rutger McGroarty. It’s the type of move that does promise to see help on the horizon, but expecting or pinning a lot of hopes that a 20-year old rookie can instantly walk into the NHL and be a key player is asking a lot.
Another somewhat recent addition that did pay off was Michael Bunting, who was dazzling in his Pittsburgh debut. His 19 point in 21 game output with the Pens was far higher than his career average (181 points in 262 games, or a 55 point pace in full seasons). 55 points will be just fine if Bunting can provide it, but is a big drop off from Guentzel’s point/game production in the last six seasons that will begin to be felt once Bunting returns to his normal form.
Then comes the questions of Rickard Rakell bouncing back from a putrid 15-goal season last year, and just how much more upside Drew O’Connor has to offer.
It’s not the best, but the McGroarty addition as well as some other potential youngsters like Blake Lizotte, Cody Glass and even Anthony Beauvillier will offer some fresh faces and young-ish players to add into the mix. Whether it’s enough to provide a viable cast of support can’t be answered with a ton of confidence in the affirmative, but the situation gets a lot better if McGroarty is an instant hit like he could be.
2. Can Tristan Jarry solidify his place as a No. 1 goalie?
Jarry has performed well in eight seasons with Pittsburgh, replacing Matt Murray as the primary starter in 2020-21. He is 136-85-25 with a 2.70 goals-against average and .912 save percentage.
He tied for the NHL lead last season with six shutouts, but was 19-25-5 with a 2.91 GAA and .903 save percentage, each his worst in an NHL season with more than two games played. And Alex Nedeljkovic started the final 13 games of last season with Jarry healthy.
Jarry is going into the second season of a five-year, $26.875 million contract ($5.375 million AAV) he signed July 1, 2023.
With Nedeljkovic returning and goalie prospect Joel Blomqvist emerging in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton of the American Hockey League, this could be a pivotal season for Jarry to cement his spot.
“I think just trying to find another level,” Jarry said. “Trying to be more consistent.”
Consistency is always the million dollar (or now, $5 million dollar) question with Jarry. His overall save percentage usually ends up nice enough — but breaking down his work shows a very strong goalie early in the year that tends to shrink away to nothing by the end of the year. To which, last year Jarry had just an .888 save% in 19 games post-All Star break, compared to a .913% before it, a perfect illustration of his usual late-season slide that ends up hindering a team with small margins of error anyways.
The team’s tolerance for Jarry weighing them down late in the year is evidently finished now that they have a backup in Alex Nedeljkovic who is clearly trusted to take over for extended periods if and when they think they need it.
But, really, the Pens need the goalie with the 11th highest healthy salary cap hit in the NHL to play like it. Shouldn’t be too much to ask, because Jarry has shown for stretches that he can do it. Stringing those performances together throughout the whole year with no drop off has always been what he’s looking to prove, and nothing is changed going into 2024-25. A large portion of the team’s hopes will end up on Jarry’s shoulder, but now that the team knows, likes and trusts Alex Nedeljkovic, they might be more inclined to have a 1A/1B type of workshare with the hotter goalie getting more action.
Although seemingly a demotion, that could be a blessing in disguise for Jarry if it keeps him fresh deep into the season and give him a chance to not see his play slump at the end of the year this time. Sounds good in theory, at least.
3. Can the power play be fixed?
Pittsburgh was 30th in the NHL on the power play at 15.3 percent last season. That’s with a top unit that featured Crosby, Malkin, Rust and defenseman Erik Karlsson. Guentzel also was part of that group before being traded. Defenseman Kris Letang was used with, and in place of, Karlsson.
Assistant coach Todd Reirden, who oversaw the power play, was fired May 3. David Quinn was hired June 12 to replace Reirden and will oversee the defense and power play. Quinn had spent the previous two seasons as coach of the San Jose Sharks, who were tied for 20th on the power play last season at 20.2 percent.
Can the old dogs be taught new tricks? That’s the question of the power play. There has been reporting that Mike Sullivan is giving his buddy David Quinn more leverage and freedom than the typical assistant coach when it comes to running the power play this season. We’ll see if that proves to be a good or bad development, but it’s nice enough to know something with the process is going to change, because it was long overdue.
The Pens’ power play was less fun than a root canal last season. Too stationary, too many hopeful and obvious long pass attempts that would be easily foiled.
How much new life and influence Quinn can have with a bunch of Hall of Famers remains to be seen. The age old question about placement for Crosby and Evgeni Malkin will remain. Erik Karlsson being able to work more magic is also up for debate but be a necessary input.
If the power play improves, Pittsburgh could go from decidedly bottom-middle of the league (finishing 19th in both 2022-23 and 2023-24) to right in the hunt for a playoff spot. It’s difficult to answer just how much better they can be but with a fresh start and new direction from Quinn, improving off last year’s dreadful 15% power play (with several back-breaking situational goals against along the way) isn’t a high bar to clear.
