The Winter Olympics Face an Existential Chill From Climate Change
There are currently 93 cities in the world with the infrastructure needed to host the Winter Olympics and Paralympics. But as the planet continues to warm, that pool of options is dwindling rapidly. By 2050, only four cities would be able to support the Olympics without the aid of artificial snow, according to a study published this week.
“Hockey, figure skating, curling, etc., are all indoors; you can do that in Miami if you want,” Daniel Scott, a professor of geography and environmental management at the University of Waterloo and one of the study’s authors, told Observer. “It’s really the snow sports that we’re talking about as vulnerable—how do you maintain that as part of the Winter Games?”
This question is top of mind for the International Olympic Committee (IOC), which is preparing to kick off the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics in Italy next month. The governing body is weighing a range of options to address rising temperatures, from combining the Olympic and Paralympic games to hosting them in different cities, or even shifting their traditional start dates to take advantage of the coldest months of the year.
“Our ambition is to protect the Olympic Winter Games and the winter sports that so many people love; to minimize the impact on the environment; and to help safeguard the winter economies that so many people rely on,” an IOC spokesperson told Observer over email.
It isn’t just the IOC that’s worried about warming winters. A 2022 survey of professional and Olympic winter athletes and coaches from 20 countries found that 90 percent were concerned about climate change’s impacts on their sport. Those impacts can include serious safety risks: eight years earlier, during the Sochi Winter Games, higher crash and injury rates among snow sport athletes were linked to warmer temperatures and lower-quality snow.
The ramifications of global warming will only get worse as the years go by. Of the 93 past and potential hosts for the Winter Olympics—which traditionally take place in February—between 45 and 55 are expected to be climate-reliable by the 2050s, with that figure falling to between 30 and 54 by the 2080s, according to the study.
The Winter Paralympics, which are held the month after the Olympics, face an even steeper challenge. Only 17 to 31 cities will be able to host the games by mid-century, with just four to 31 cities remaining viable three decades later. “How do you get the Paralympics out of March?” said Scott.
How can the Olympics adapt to rising temperatures?
One proposal from Scott and his co-authors is to merge the Olympics and Paralympics so that both games take place in February. The solution would increase visibility for the Paralympics—but, on the other hand, might risk them being overshadowed. The logistics of unifying the two games, too, would be a mammoth undertaking for the host city.
Another option could be to get rid of the “One Bid, One City” partnership, established in 2001, which requires host cities to stage the Olympics and Paralympics at the same venues. Instead, the games could be held in different locations at the same time. But doing so would end a successful collaboration that has helped the IOC and International Paralympic Committee (IPC) support each other and their athletes over the past 25 years.
The most promising solution, Scott said, would be to shift both games back by two to three weeks. While that would slightly reduce the number of climate-reliable Olympic hosts, it would substantially expand options for the Paralympics, adding 14 more climate-reliable cities by the 2080s. The IOC “were grateful to get that new analysis, because that was something they were actually considering,” said Scott.
The future of snow itself is another critical concern. Artificial snow will play an increasingly central role in future Winter Games—and already does today. Currently, just seven of the 93 possible host locations could stage the Olympics without artificial snow, with only five able to do so for the Paralympics. That number is expected to fall even further as emissions continue to rise.
Artificial snow is nothing new, Scott noted. “I think some people lose sight of the fact that snowmaking has been part of the Olympics since Lake Placid, 40 years ago,” he said. “So, it’s not a question of, ‘Can you do without it?’ It’s, ‘How do you make it as sustainable as possible?'”
While machine-made snow has drawn criticisms for its energy and
Rising heat won’t just affect the Winter Olympics. The Summer Olympics are already feeling the strain: during the 2020 Summer Olympics in Tokyo, marathons were moved to Sapporo to escape extreme heat. And the 2032 Summer Olympics in Brisbane will be held during Australia’s winter rather than summer to take advantage of cooler weather. “Heat risk is a growing concern,” said Scott.