June has been a month featuring numerous days with thunderstorms and a good chunk of days with both heat & humidity. So, it only makes sense that Mother Nature has temporarily ramped up the heat & humidity and increased our storm chances for the final day of June. Looking ahead to July, we look to start the month off with low humidity, with an uptick in dew points anticipated by the 4th of July Holiday.
June has been a month featuring numerous days with thunderstorms and a good chunk of days with both heat & humidity. So, it only makes sense that Mother Nature has temporarily ramped up the heat & humidity and increased our storm chances for the final day of June. Looking ahead to July, we look to start the month off with low humidity, with an uptick in dew points anticipated by the 4th of July Holiday.
With some sunshine to go along with the uptick in humidity, a more favorable environment is being fostered for thunderstorms to develop.
A cold front approaching from the west will both provide a trigger for t-storm development (ahead of the front), and also extinguish any severe threat once it moves through your town.
That's right, another Sunday, another severe risk. The severe weather window is pretty small (but non-zero) northwest of Albany with the cold front coming through early this afternoon. Storms will have more time to develop, mature, and strengthen before they move to the southeast, which is why those areas have been included in a Slight Risk (Level 2/5). As of 9 AM, most of Southern New England & NYC Tri-State Area have been upgraded to a Level 3/5 Enhanced risk, indicating the highest confidence for some strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon. Damaging winds are the main concern, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out in the area with the slight & enhanced risks.
Temperatures spike into the low to mid 80s before storms develop. Not everyone will see a thunderstorm this afternoon. An even fewer number of folks will see a severe thunderstorm.
A few showers will be around overnight, otherwise it will be cooler and less muggy by Monday morning. Low temperatures mainly in the 50s to near 60.
I can't rule out a stray shower or two Monday morning, otherwise morning clouds will yield to more afternoon sunshine. High temps will max out in the 70s.
After a cool start Tuesday which could feature temps in the 40s, we will rebound into the upper 70s and lower 80s under lots of sunshine. More clouds and a bit of a breeze are on tap for Wednesday, along with an uptick in humidity and warmer conditions.
Temperatures should stick around that 85-90 degree range through the end of next week. I do like the trends for the 4th of July Holiday itself, but it does appear storm chances will increase into the actual weekend itself. We will continue to watch the model trends closely!
