The 2024 NFL season will be the first time since 1999 that the Patriots will not have either Tom Brady or Bill Belichick on the sideline, and how they perform in their first rebuilding year will be critical for the future of the franchise.
New England projects to be one of the worst teams in the league, but there are multiple reasons to be optimistic about the team. While head coach Jerod Mayo fumbled his quarterback announcement, he still is an open book regarding in-game management. The Patriots have interesting skill players who could break out this season, and of course, Drake Maye could be the key to rejuvenating the franchise.
Executive vice president of player personnel Eliot Wolf already brushed off the idea of tanking, but is that the wrong approach? What is the ideal result that fans should look forward to? Let's look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Patriots this season.
Best Case
New England should approach this season like an NBA team. In the NBA, you either want to be among the top teams in the league or one of the worst. That's because being in the middle doesn't afford you a high lottery pick and making the playoffs might not guarantee you success since you're likely to get crushed by a higher seed. The NFL is slightly different in that there is some value to making the playoffs. Football has so much more variance, especially in a one-game setting, and a potential upset is more realistic than in a seven-game series.
What does this mean for the Patriots? Well, bottoming out for a top pick is the best way to go on one spectrum. New England could have its top choice of a wide receiver or offensive lineman, or the better choice would be to trade that top pick for a king's ransom to better fill the holes on the roster. On the other end of the spectrum, what if this team is a sneaky postseason squad?
As mentioned, there is a lot of variance in football. Teams change week-to-week, and outside of the Super Bowl contenders, everyone else is varying degrees of good or bad. New England went 4-8 in one-score games last season. A competent offense and a head coach who makes advantageous decisions could be what the team needs to sneak into a wild-card spot, which could jumpstart the franchise similar to how the Packers sneaking in at No. 7 and upsetting the Dallas Cowboys helped change the perceptions of everybody in Green Bay.
Worst Case
Again, if New England is horrible as projections believe, that isn't the worst thing in the world. Sure fans might be fatigued by another dreary season and Boston radio would have incessant chatter about who to fire, but it's all worth it if the Patriots get a top-five pick. What would be terrible for the franchise is if does surpass expectations but not enough to sneak into the playoffs. The worst thing for fans is to get their hopes up and then be disappointed in the end. Fans need to see New England either be piss-poor awful or surprisingly good. You can't be a mediocre side that goes 6-11 or 7-10. It really does you no good in terms of competing this season and the low-value draft pick doesn't give you much leverage in a trade package. Fans should hope the team aims for the highest of highs or the lowest of lows.
