MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC Fight Night 244 main event: Brandon Royval vs. Tatsuro Taira (ESPN+).
Brandon Royval
Staple info:
Supplemental info:
+ LFA flyweight title
+ Amateur MMA accolades
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 4 KO victories
+ 9 submission wins
+ 10 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Active feints and footwork
+ Diverse shot selection
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Dangerous knees and elbows
+ Active and urgent scrambler
^ Good granby rolls
+ Excellent transitional grappler
^ Opportunistic submission threat
+/- 3-2 inside the UFC Apex
Tatsuro Taira
Staple info:
Supplemental info:
+ Shooto flyweight title
+ Amateur MMA accolades
+ 5 knockout victories
+ 7 submission wins
+ 8 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Good sense of range
^ Measures distance well
+ Steadily improving striking
^ Hard kicks from the left side
+ Strong inside the clinch
+ Solid takedown ability
^ Chains well against the fence
+ Excellent transitional grappler
^ Superb back-taker
+/- 1-0 against UFC-level southpaws
+/- 5-0 in the UFC Apex
Dec 16, 2023; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Alexandre Pantoja (red gloves) fights Brandon Royval (blue gloves) during UFC 296 at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
The main event in Las Vegas features an important battle between top-ranked flyweights, Brandon Royval and Tatsuro Taira.
Royval, who is more of a free-flowing stylist, is at his best when seizing the striking initiative through his dynamic southpaw offerings.
Akin to many Factory-X fighters, Royval utilizes some crafty feints and footwork that helps both setup and pull out offense. Once he gets a beat to his liking, Royval quickly responds with solid combinations which are often punctuated with dangerous kicks and knees.
When Royval’s feeling in stride, he will incorporate slick spinning assaults either coming forward or off the counter. That said, the former title challenger is not beyond being countered for his aggression.
Enter Taira.
Fighting his frame and stylistic sensibilities, Taira will typically look to play all the way in or all the way out when it comes to his operating range.
At distance, Taira looks to set up long straight shots off his in-and-out movement. When feeling in stride, Taira will attach solid kicks to his combinations (particularly off of his lead side).
Taira has also shown a solid ability to strike into collar ties, which could come in handy when it comes to corralling a sporadic and dynamic Royval.
Jul 8, 2023; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Tatsuro Taira (red gloves) fights Edgar Chairez (blue gloves) during UFC 290 at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
Considering both the stylistic dynamic and the fighting terrain, winning the wrestling will arguably be paramount for both parties this weekend.
A talented back-taker who is steadily rounding out his surrounding skill set, Taira appears to have no illusions as to where his bread is buttered.
Not only is Taira patient when it comes to setting up his shots, but the Japanese fighter does not seem easily discouraged when failing on his first attempt.
Akin to great MMA grapplers like Khabib Nurmagomedov, Taira looks to be perfectly content with using his first shot to drive his opposition toward the octagon walls. From there, Taira will chain to and from single-legs to trip takedowns that allow him to drag the fight into his world.
Nevertheless, Taira will still need to be mindful of his neck when committing to takedowns opposite a front-headlock threat like Royval.
A Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, Royval is an opportunistic submission threat who isn’t afraid to play in the proverbial dirt.
Whether he’s operating off his back or seeking out fight-ending submissions in scrambles, Royval is constantly looking to capitalize in the chaos. That said, Royval does have the propensity to allow for back exposure in said scrambles given his love for tactics like granby rolls.
Royval did show improved awareness for back exposure in his title attempt against the criminally disrespected Alexandre Pantoja, but the American still surrendered a ton of control time spamming unsuccessful submissions and strikes from the bottom.
I’ll be curious to see what getup options Royval will use this time around given that he’s facing another backpacking threat.
Taira may still be developing large parts of his game, but the 24-year-old’s back-taking abilities are potent beyond his years. Whether Taira is looking for rear-naked chokes or baiting escapes that lead to armlocks, the native of Japan will be extremely dangerous anytime he attaches himself to Royval.
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The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the Japanese fighter, listing Taira -290 and Royval +215 via FanDuel.
Tatsuro Taira
Between the oddsmakers loving undefeated fighters to MMA gamblers’ borderline-creepy age obsession, seeing the younger Taira get steamed with support on the betting lines comes as no shock here.
Although I’m happy to finally see an Asian fighter getting love from the fanbase and promotion alike, I’d suggest tempering expectations to anyone mimicking the unwarranted glazing that Michael Bisping was doing to the Japanese prospect last time out (in a fight where he was technically down on the cards before winning by injury over the continually disrespected Alex Perez, by the way).
But gross celebrations over potentially career-altering injuries aside, Taira quietly showed a lot to like his last time out.
From his ability to play distance with interceptions in tow to his newfound collar ties and clinch connections, the foundation of Taira’s game is starting to resemble Islam Makhachev. And inside of the smaller octagon of the Apex, Taira’s game only becomes more potent.
Aside from being a fan of Royval’s style and his camp, I’m hoping that he can survive the early rounds and extend Taira so that we can see more of the 24-year-old as well. But between this fight being in the small cage to Royval’s propensity to get controlled by top grapplers, I have a feeling that “Raw Dawg” may end up having to rely more on deterrents like knees and front-choke threats than perhaps he’d like to.
Add in the fact that injury-style TKOs are always on the table when it comes to fighters like Royval or Sean O’Malley (as freak injuries historically seem to happen to long and lanky fighters who are large for the lower weight classes), and I can’t help but favor Taira in this spot.
I’ll officially pick Taira to find a submission by the end of Round 2.
As the main event in Las Vegas, Royval and Taira are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 9:45 p.m. ET. The event streams on ESPN+.
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC Fight Night 244.
