Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz will undoubtedly become one of the most talked-about fights in combat sports in 2023, but the jury is still out on how competitive this matchup might actually be.
While he’s yet to really put together credentials to prove he’ll be a threat to experienced boxers, Paul has put together a respectable 6-1 record, including wins over UFC legends like Anderson Silva and Tyron Woodley. He did lose his most recent fight to Tommy Fury in a close split decision but Paul has still amassed seven professional fights since turning pro just over three years ago.
On the other side, Diaz has far more experience overall with 34 fights in MMA, but for all the training he’s done alongside boxing champions like Andre Ward, he’s never actually strapped on the gloves for a professional match. Diaz will also go up to 185 pounds for the fight with Paul after spending his entire UFC career competing at either 155 or 170 pounds.
All those factors combined have UFC welterweight Matt Brown convinced that Diaz doesn’t stand a great chance to beat Paul unless he can somehow drag the fight into the later rounds.
“[Nate Diaz] has good boxing, but he’s very hittable and he’s so much smaller than Jake,” Brown said on the latest episode of The Fighter vs. The Writer. “Jake does have a good right hand. That’s how he’s been knocking people out, and as a hittable southpaw, that’s bad for Nate.
“I’m going to pick Jake Paul to win this fight. But the big thing is that Nate has going for him is the cardio. Same thing in MMA. When he fights guys in MMA, that cardio advantage is absolutely huge so if he can survive four or five rounds or three or four rounds, it’s an eight-round fight I think, if he can survive a few and just start wearing him out, I think that’s where his best chance is. I think everybody is going to be hard pressed to pick Nate for this fight.”
Diaz opened as a sizable underdog to Paul with the fight still over three months away.
The tale of the tape says Paul will only have one inch in height over Diaz with an identical 76-inch reach shared between them, but the 26-year-old social influencer turned boxer is just the physically bigger man.
Brown believes that will be a huge weapon for Paul, especially with the power he’s been able to generate in his right hand after knocking out fighters like Woodley and Ben Askren, who were natural welterweights.
“Because there’s going to be a power difference, and Nate’s probably used to being the taller man in fights, that’s certainly not going to be the case this time so that’s going to be different for him,” Brown said. “Really the only chance I see of him winning is just simply wearing him out. It’s hard to do in boxing than MMA. It’s harder to do. Jake will be able to block better with the bigger gloves. He’s only got to worry about two weapons. It’s just a million different things.
“It’s just an uphill battle for Nate when we talk about wins and losses, but like you said, he’s getting paid, good for him. He’s going to f****** retire a multi-millionaire. He’s got a lot of money in the bank. I hope he doesn’t waste it and blow it on something stupid but good for him.”
Even if the odds are stacked against him, Diaz will undoubtedly earn a healthy paycheck for the fight against Paul as he will serve as a co-promoter on the card with boxers typically taking home the lion’s share of the profits from the event.
Add to that, Brown says the real attraction to this matchup isn’t the fight itself but the promotion and hype built around it, which much like the fight between Conor McGregor and Floyd Mayweather will bring a lot of eyeballs and money pouring into the pay-per-view.
“The fight isn’t even exciting,” Brown said. “I don’t care — but the buildup, I’m probably going to be more interested watching that than the fight itself. I don’t know how many people are actually interested in the fight itself but a lot of people are going to get interested, Because of the press conferences and the hype and the buildup. It’s going to get interesting. We know it.
“That’s why I’ll probably f****** end up watching it and wishing that I didn’t, but I’ll probably end up watching it. I can promise you I’m not going to buy it but we’ll probably end up watching the son of a b**** and hoping that Nate finds a way. They’re going to make a lot of f****** money.”
New episodes of The Fighter vs. The Writer drop every Tuesday with the podcast available on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, iHeartRadio and Stitcher
