There has been a steady drumbeat of reports this year that the electric car market, particularly outside China, is taking an offramp.
While sales growth has certainly slowed down from the torrid pace of the last few years, in part due to base effects, the global EV market, including plug-in and conventional hybrids, should easily top 20 million units this year.
In combined battery capacity deployed – a better indicator of battery materials demand than unit sales alone – the global electric car market expanded by 23% during the first half of the year.
In total, 365.5 GWh of fresh battery power hit the globe’s roads from January through June, according to data from Adamas Intelligence. The robust growth rate also comes despite a noticeable swing towards hybrid vehicles which have inherently smaller batteries.
However, when pairing metals demand with prices in the EV battery supply chain the picture looks very different.
The graphs from Toronto-based EV supply chain research firm Adamas Intelligence show the sales weighted average monthly dollar value of the lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese and graphite contained in the batteries of the average EV based on global end-user registrations, battery capacity and chemistries.
Put it all together and the raw materials bill for the average EV is down to $655 so far this year from $1,674 over the same period in 2023 and a monthly peak of more than $1,900 at the beginning of last year, according to Adamas Intelligence analysis.
While the year on year comparisons are brutal, nickel, manganese and graphite have been on a noticeable upswing since the start of 2024. The sales weighted average value of nickel per EV is up 32% since January.
Nickel is being boosted by the slow rollout of LFP battery chemistries outside China, a long-running trend towards high-nickel cathodes, and the growing popularity of NCM batteries for larger plug-in and range-extending hybrids where the energy density of nickel-based cathodes makes more sense given the weight of these vehicles.
The price falls are great news for automakers struggling to bring prices for their EV offerings in line with internal combustion engine vehicles and should provide fresh impetus for consumer adoption.
For battery metals miners however, healthy demand growth from the EV sector is now entirely overshadowed by fears of a prolonged slump in prices.
Judging by the positive trends on a monthly basis since the start of the year, some of those fears can be allayed.
For a fuller analysis of the battery metals market check out the Northern Miner print and digital editions.
