The official unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 32.1% in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to Statistics South Africa’s quarterly labour force survey.
Up from a previous reading of 31.9%, the 0.2 percentage point rise was driven by a slight increase in the number of unemployed people. There were 46 000 more people without jobs in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to the three months prior, causing total employment to fall for the first time in two years.
StatsSA’s data shows that the largest employment losses were in the community and social services sector, which shed 171 000 jobs in the fourth quarter. There were also job losses in construction, agriculture, trade and manufacturing.
The data also shows that in the last decade, the number of unemployed people in South Africa increased from 4.8 million to 7.9 million, signalling the country’s economic malaise during the period.
South Africa’s job crisis deepened in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, which resulted in more than two million people losing their jobs in the second quarter of 2020.
Although there are now about 300 000 more employed people than there were prior to the Covid-induced decline, this slight recovery took more than three years. Total employment was unchanged between the third and the fourth quarters of 2023.
The unemployment data comes the day before Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is set to table the treasury’s budget for the coming fiscal year.
Analysts agree that the budget will probably see the treasury administering fiscal consolidation to stabilise the country’s public finances — an outcome which would hamstring the economy and ambitions to bring down the ultra-high unemployment rate.
Commenting on Tuesday’s jobs print, Anchor Capital investment analyst Casey Sprake said the official headline unemployment numbers probably do not fully reflect the true extent of the country’s unemployment crisis.
The official unemployment rate, Sprake noted, might not fully account for the quality of jobs available, as well as employment security, adding that many South Africans are trapped in low-skilled and precarious jobs.
Material job creation has only occurred when GDP growth approaches 3% a year, Sprake added. “Currently, businesses remain under significant pressure from the ongoing effects of load-shedding, which is also weighing on jobs and the unemployment data.”
Current estimates put GDP growth at about 0.5% year-on-year in 2023 and 1% in 2024.
