The usual suspects?
There is an asteroid with a 72% chance of hitting Earth on July 12, 2038 – that’s the scenario Nasa just tested to see how well humanity would cope with a massive space rock slamming into us.
And the results?
They weren’t great, to be honest.
If you’ve watched any asteroid-based Hollywood film, you’ll know the US takes the lead, as is the case here. Nasa put together its fifth planetary defense interagency tabletop exercise, inviting more than 100 participants including the UN, the UK Space Agency (UKSA) and the European Space Agency (ESA).
Presented with the challenge of an asteroid somewhere between 60 and 200 metres wide likely to strike somewhere between North America and Saudi Arabia in 14 years’ time, the organisations had to work together to save us – or identify what might throw a spanner in the works and leave us waiting for the big impact.
And you might not be surprised to hear the biggest point of failure was politics.
Yes, it seems even in the face of potential extinction, scientists and space leaders fear politicians will fail to get their act together and work as a team to save us all.
But said in a slightly more diplomatic way.
In terms of immediate action following the discovery of the asteroid, most senior leaders favoured one of two missions to launch a spacecraft that would meet with the asteroid and learn more about it.
However, they feared the ‘political realities would limit immediate action’. It was noted that the US Congress, never mind other governments, friend or foe, may be unlikely to act unless an impact was certain.
One comment shared at the end of the exercise read: ‘I know what I would prefer [to do], but Congress will tell us to wait.’
In addition, while you might think 14 years’ warning before a strike would be quite comforting, this was also seen as a possible disadvantage due to changes in governments and political leadership, budget cycles and other world events.
For example, if another pandemic hit or the US went to war, spending on planetary defence would likely drop down the pecking order.
In September last year, Nasa’s OSIRIS-REx mission successfully returned samples of an asteroid, named Bennu, to Earth.
As we speak, scientists across the world are analysing this mesmerising space rock that’s whizzing through space around 200 million miles away.
However, it could also be whizzing right towards us – and if it collided, would unleash the force of 22 atomic bombs.
At the moment, it has about a 1 in 2,700 chance of colliding with Earth on Tuesday, September 24, 2182.
The odds of it hitting sometime between now and 2300 are even lower, at about 1 in 1,750.
In 2135 the asteroid will make a close approach, which scientists who haven’t yet been born will use to understand Bennu’s exact trajectory and how Earth’s gravity will alter the asteroid’s path – affecting the chances of hitting the planet on another orbit.
While the most expensive mission was estimated at a little over $1 billion, global GDP is fast approaching $1 trillion, so it seems like a worthwhile investment – although the Nasa scenario predicted it was more likely between 1,000 and 100,000 people would die, rather than a mass extinction.
Also of major concern was the lack of any disaster management plans for survivors should an asteroid hit – so not only might politicians fail to stop the asteroid, we could be on our own after it strikes.
Excellent.
And alongside the politics, another issue identified by the exercise included the difficulty of managing misinformation and disinformation in the digital age, something already proving problematic in a year of dozens of elections.
Of course, the point of such exercises is to highlight failings like this so that, if the situation ever arises for real, those in charge have a better idea of where problems may appear.
And Nasa has already proved it is capable of knocking an asteroid off course if needed – even if it did accidentally create dozens of smaller asteroids that may one day crash into Mars.
While its Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission has only been tested once, there’s hope it could be done again if needed – with enough funding from politicians, of course.
Plus, Nasa highlighted that its new Near-Earth Object (NEO) surveyor mission, a powerful infrared telescope designed to seek out hazardous space rocks, is set for launch in 2028.
Let’s hope if it finds anything, our governments pay attention.
