There's a lot going on, folks.
As my overheating phone can attest, you all have questions about the Warriors heading into a pivotal stretch of the NBA offseason.
That’s good. I’d like to think I have answers.
So instead of a mailbag this week, I figured I’d just summarize the never-ending barrage of questions and give you my best understanding — and takes — on them.
Hopefully, this can get everyone’s heads to stop spinning. (Leaving just mine on an axis.)
Can you explain what’s going on with the luxury tax?
How much time do you have?
Here’s the short of it: The NBA’s new collective bargaining agreement included a new, exceptionally punitive “second apron” in the luxury tax. For the upcoming season, it is set at $189.48 million (give or take).
Go over this line and you are not only paying a big premium on every dollar spent, but you are hit with new restrictions on signings, trades, and even draft picks.
The second apron was put in to stop the Warriors and Clippers from spending and making all these other NBA teams look poor.
It’s going to work. The Clippers and Paul George are navigating around that second apron this offseason and the Warriors have all but declared they will not even approach the line, meaning Chris Paul or Klay Thompson (or both) are gone.
Can the Warriors trade Chris Paul?
Sure! But they’d need to be pretty far down the tracks on a deal by now. There’s no indication that’s the case.
Such a trade would need to be done by Friday when Paul’s $30 million contract for next season is guaranteed. The Warriors can’t let that go onto the books unless they are certain Thompson is leaving in free agency — something that is not certain and, frankly, not probable at this juncture.
Say that were the case: The Warriors would still want to trade Paul this week, because on July 1 the new CBA goes into effect, with all the new restrictions on trades in tow. It would be hard to trade Paul normally and will be even more challenging with the new rules, which prohibit second-apron teams from signing and trading, using trade exceptions, sending cash, aggregating contractions, or taking back more money in a trade.
All signs point to Paul being waived before Friday, clearing his salary off the books.
Would Klay Thompson really leave?
I don’t think Thompson’s flirtations with other teams are a bluff. I also don’t think that means he’ll be leaving the Warriors. It’s a negotiation, baby.
Thompson wants at least three years and as much money as he can get on this, the last big contract he’ll sign in the NBA. If there are multiple bidders for his services, the Warriors will have to improve their offer or see him walk.
But I don’t foresee anyone making a big-time offer (like a three-year, $100 million) to Thompson.
I do think the Warriors give in and give Thompson three years, though.
Draymond Green currently has three years remaining on his contract (two plus a player option) totaling $77.67 million in compensation.
That seems like a fair deal to give to Thompson — no?
If Paul and Thompson leave, can the Warriors sign another free agent?
Per my calculations (so rim that glass with salt) the Warriors would still be slightly over the salary cap ($141 million) if both Paul and Thompson leave in free agency.
I’d bet the Warriors could duck under that line, but it’d be by dollars if not cents. And without tens of millions in salary cap space, you’re not signing Paul George or OG Anunoby, so I’m not sure it’s worth the trouble — it’s not like they’ll lower ticket prices in the process.
So, really, the only way for the Warriors to add serious talent is via salary exception contracts. And frankly, it’d be most beneficial to be a team over the salary cap but under the luxury tax line. The exception for non-tax teams is nearly $13 million. For taxpayers, it’s $5.2 million. Duck under the salary cap altogether and it’s only $8 million.
So no, the Warriors can’t reasonably replace Paul and Thompson with free agents.
They can, however, keep one and pick up a replacement (at $13 mil a season) for the other.
The Warriors will also have access to the bi-annual exception worth $4.7 million. So now you know that.
How does the draft fit into this?
The draft is always critically important, but it’s even more vital for the Warriors moving forward.
The ability to pick up good players on the super-cheap is the original appeal of the draft. It’s gone to a whole new level under the new CBA.
Second-round picks now carry an automatic exception. Second-round picks can be signed to a salary higher than the minimum for more than two years and it won’t count against the cap. For teams in the luxury tax, that’s a massive win — it makes second-round picks arguably more valuable than non-lottery first-round selections.
The Warriors are picking at No. 52 on Thursday (the NBA Draft is now two days). I suspect they will select someone they expect to contribute immediately and who will sign a four-year contract.
And Jonathan Kuminga — what’s the deal with him?
The Warriors need to decide if they are going to be in the Kuminga business long-term this summer, as he is eligible to be extended before the start of the season.
And, you might be shocked to hear this, but he’ll demand close to $30 million a year on that extension.
The Oklahoma City Thunder faced a similar scenario this summer with guard Josh Giddey and they opted to trade him to Chicago for Alex Caruso last week. It was a coup of a deal for the Thunder.
Here’s the thing: The Warriors value Kuminga more than any other team does. I expect them to keep and extend him.
But for a team whose window to win (if one exists) is in the here and now, betting that much on potential seems bold. I’d swap him as part of a deal for Atlanta point guard Dejounte Murray, but I’m not in charge and this isn’t NBA 2K.
While we’re pretending you’re the GM, who should the Warriors pick then?
There are some decent options. Clemson big man PJ Hall is a name attached to the Warriors often. Watching his tape, it’s easy to see why Steve Kerr would like him. My pick is still Kentucky wing Antonio Reeves.
Who are some free agents the Warriors can land?
Of the mid-level exception guys, I like Jonas Valanciunas, Spencer Dinwiddie, Kyle Anderson, and Precious Achiuwa. I wouldn’t hold my breath on any of those, though.
The league-minimum guys will have ample choices, but I’d like Robert Covington, Kevin Love, Gordon Hayward, Drew Eubanks, Robin Lopez, and Delon Wright.
Can you just fast-forward and show me the Warriors’ projected roster for next season?
Sure thing. Here’s a 15-man roster for you.
Ball Handler: Steph Curry | Brandin Podziemski; Spencer Dinwiddie
Wings: Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Jonathan Kuminga | Gary Payton II, Moses Moody, Lester Quinones, Gui Santos, Antonio Reeves
Bigs: Draymond Green | Trayce Jackson-Davis, Kevon Looney, Usman Garuba
