Sports columnist Dieter Kurtenbach breaks down the best moves the Warriors could make this summer and figures out why the 49ers stopped carrying about the salary cap.
It’s mailbag time.
And this go-around we’re touching on every single fan base in the Bay.
But first: NBA offseason talk:
What’s the Warriors’ best-case scenario this off-season? What is the most likely scenario this off-season? – @sometimes_salty
» I don’t know if you’ve been watching these NBA Finals, but they’ve been a mess. Yes, Boston is the better team, but they don’t inspire awe, particularly on the offensive end. Dallas is a total joke.
The bar that is being set by the NBA’s two supposed best is pretty low.
Now, even that bar might not be surmountable for the Warriors, but the more I watch this slap-fight, the more I think Golden State has no reason to not go all-in on one last run.
Let’s be honest: the second Steph Curry leaves, this team is going to stink something fierce. I suppose the Warriors could try to hedge against that possibility today, but wouldn’t the better play be maximizing the moments you have him?
Alas, even if the Warriors go that route, only so much could be done.
Here’s the best-case scenario for the Warriors.
• Trade for Dejounte Murray from Atlanta (Jonathan Kuminga, a couple of 1st-round pick swaps, and Chris Paul — who agrees to extend his June 28 release date — as a make-weight go to the Hawks). This will have to happen after the draft
• Re-work Gary Payton II’s deal
• Re-work Kevon Looney’s deal
• Pray that no one wants to offer Jonas Valanciunas a legit NBA contract and sign him to the tax-payer mid-level exception
• Re-sign Klay Thompson to a 2+1 contract (where the 1 never comes into play) aligning him with Curry, Draymond Green, and Steve Kerr
• Draft Kentucky wing Antonio Reeves at No. 52
• Buy another second-round pick to select Duke center Kyle Filipowski (if he falls past no. 40)
• Buy a third second-round pick and lock up a young, projectable player on a CBA-circumventing three or four-year deal (a lá Trayce Jackson-Davis)
Three second-round picks? Hey, you said best-case.
I love the idea of Murray as a point-guard defender in a switch-everything Warriors defense. He’d also be the anchor of the second unit when Curry isn’t on the floor. Atlanta is back to the drawing board — Kuminga is a great option for a team looking to buy youth and athleticism to jump-start a new era.
And Valanciunas would just look right with the Warriors, even if you couldn’t close with him. I imagine someone will give him an honest deal, but the new, punitive CBA is going to ensure some players are going to fall through the cracks
As for the second-round picks — they’re worth so much more in the new collective bargaining agreement because players picked there can be signed to longer-term deals without it affecting a team’s salary cap. Consider the cost of buying such a pick a luxury tax.
But this is simply the ideal.
What do I actually think will happen?
• The Warriors waive Paul before the NBA Draft
• They pick Pelle Larsson (Arizona) with pick No. 52
• They re-sign Thompson to the aforementioned contract
• They sign Jonathan Kuminga to a five-year, $150 million extension
And that, folks, is how you lock in mediocrity in the present and much much worse in the not-too-distant future.
Between college and pro teams in the Bay Area, which fanbase is the most passionate about its team? – @MrEd315
» I think most fanbases can make this case. And, to be honest, I’m not sure it’s a badge of honor.
The 49ers and Warriors have big numbers and an insatiable appetite for conversation about their teams. On sheer volume of passion, they’re No. 1 and No. 2.
Giants fans need to have a meeting to organize their thoughts — and to formally acknowledge that the dead-ball era in which the team won three titles is well over. (Even though MLB offense is down this season.) Their passion has the energy of hormonal teen angst — angry at everything for no real reason and then over-the-top happy over small things. Exhausting stuff. But I don’t think you can slot them anywhere but No. 3.
I expect more Sharks fans to come back into the fold this upcoming season. I can’t blame anyone for tuning them out when the team’s only plan was to burn it all down for the last few seasons. This ranking is to be determined.
And along those lines, I want to shout out A’s fans. There shouldn’t be any. According to ownership, there aren’t any.
But we all know that’s not the case.
I might be sick of the commercialization and self-aggrandizing that has taken over the “Sell” movement, but I can do nothing but laud the fact we’ve reached such a point where I can claim that passionate A’s fans are overdoing it.
Much better to ask someone to pull back than to ramp it up.
If we’re only talking about the most passionate of passionate, the winner has to be the A’s fans. I wish that energy could have been channeled via different means, but alas, here we are.
As for the colleges: I wish there was more of an appetite for it. But we’re in a market that can take or leave professional sports. This town’s favorite team is the winning team. There’s nothing wrong with that — it’s brilliant that we live in such a place where we can do so many other things than go to games. (Unlike, say, Cleveland, Ohio.) This is merely to say that I love college football and wish I could talk about it with… anyone. (Jon Wilner stopped taking my calls long ago.)
Alas, I don’t think Stanford and Cal moving to the Atlantic Coast Conference is going to help with that.
How important is fiscal (salary cap) discipline to the 49ers’ front office? And on a granular level, does that discipline extend to position groups? How would you explain their approach? –@f_cadmus
» The 49ers used to be exceptionally buttoned up when it came to the salary cap. Some real goody-too-shoes stuff.
But for the past few seasons, this team has thrown caution to the wind in a bid to win the Super Bowl.
The 180-degree turn was, frankly, shocking. I can’t say explicitly it directly coincided with the team’s salary cap guru Paraag Marathe taking over as the head man of the 49ers’ English soccer team — Leeds United — but, well, it is a strange coincidence, no?
(The 49ers took a 44 percent control of Leeds in 2021 — the team bought Leeds outright last summer. Marathe was the shadow chairman before formally taking the title last year.)
Now, this new financial aggression was made easier by the fact that the NFL salary cap saw some big spikes and the team’s quarterback made a rounding error.
The salary cap will keep going up, but Brock Purdy is about to be paid 50, 55, or 60x what he currently makes. We’re looking down the pipe at a quarterback who wasn’t even a top-51 player taking up 25 percent of the team’s available money for a season.
I’ve called the upcoming Paid-Purdy era an “era of austerity” for that reason.
And we’re already seeing it in action.
The Niners’ offensive line is a perfect example of the team’s necessary arbitrage moving forward:
Trent Williams is an all-time player. He’ll be paid as such.
But everyone else is going to be cheap. The Niners are betting that offensive line coach Chris Foerster can coach them up to a point of competence.
