About 43 million people — or 12.9% of Americans — lived in poverty last year. That’s according to this week’s release of the Census Bureau’s Supplemental Poverty Measure, a more comprehensive measure of poverty that factors in geographic differences in the cost of living, as well as income from government programs like food stamps.
That poverty rate has crept up year over year. Typically, poverty rates fall during periods of economic growth and a hot labor market. And with unemployment at historically low levels in 2023, lower-income workers experienced wage gains.
The problem though for many poor families? Inflation.
“So essentially when the cost of things go up, that reduces the amount of money that people have in their pockets at the end of the day,” said Michael Collins, a poverty researcher at the University of Wisconsin Madison.
The biggest driver of the higher poverty rate is also the source of inflation the Fed has struggled with most: “Rent is more expensive, and so rent took away more money out of people’s budgets, and so — as a result — they had less money left over for everything else,” Collins said.
And while rents were escalating, many families saw pandemic-era government programs expire, like expanded food stamp and free school lunch benefits.
“That’s a meaningful contributor to this uptick in child poverty,” explained Bradley Hardy, a professor of public policy at Georgetown.
An uptick, that is, to the tune of nearly 14%. Back in 2021, only about 5% of children lived in poverty — mostly because of a brief expansion in the child tax credit. Congress let it expire after one year.
Restoring that credit would have a profound impact, Hardy said.
“There’s quite a bit of evidence that, you know, providing economic security, lowering levels of economic hardship, lowering poverty can have long run economic returns for the kids who are growing up in those households,” he said.
The credit was pretty popular with Americans across party lines — which may be why Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris and GOP vice presidential nominee JD Vance have both expressed support for bringing it back.
