(NEXSTAR) — It may be hard to believe, but autumn is slowly creeping up, bringing with it one of nature’s most stunning shows: the changing of the leaves. Those in nearly two dozen states may be in for an even more vibrant display of fall foliage, according to a new report. Two of the nation’s fall color hotspots, though, may not be as lucky.
Nationwide, our trees (at least those that have color-changing leaves) are getting the signals to start settling in for the winter — namely, the signal that the sunlight they've enjoyed since the summer solstice in June is waning. That loss of sunlight will only become more pronounced through September.
Another factor that can impact fall foliage is the amount of rain your area has or hasn’t received through the summer. Too much or too little rain can put stress on trees, impacting the colors the leaves become and how long they stick around, Brad Hutnik, a forest ecologist/silviculturist with the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources previously told Nexstar.
Temperature can influence the leaves, too. According to AccuWeather, sunny days and cool nights in early fall can “enhance autumn colors,” but too much heat or overnight frost are not ideal for those looking for stunning foliage.
AccuWeather is forecasting the perfect conditions for vibrant fall foliage this year in all or part of 20 states: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, South Dakota, Arkansas, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, and Vermont.
“We think the best places to go will be parts of the Upper Midwest, like Minneapolis, Green Bay, and outside of Chicago,” AccuWeather lead long-range expert Paul Pastelok said in a press release. “The trees should have nice reds and oranges. Another good place to see good foliage is in parts of the interior Northeast. If you're traveling from the Poconos all the way to maybe Erie, Pennsylvania, those areas could see some pretty good foliage.”
You can see AccuWeather’s fall foliage forecast below:
The rest of the country, however, may only see “typical” to “dull” fall leaves. That includes two hotbeds for leaf peeping in the U.S.: the Rockies and eastern New England.
Pastelok explained there are multiple factors that may cause more yellows and browns in these regions than bright reds and oranges. Along the East Coast, he pointed to an excess of precipitation, with more expected through early fall. In parts of the central Appalachians, West Virginia, and western Maryland, it’s the opposite problem, as the region has experienced “severe drought over the summer.” Heat and drought are likely to limit the vibrancy of the fall foliage in the Rockies, he added.
Regardless of what colors the leaves become near you, you’ll want to catch them while you can. AccuWeather is predicting that most of the U.S. will be past peak foliage time by about mid-October, though that window will vary by region.
Some areas may be at or near peak conditions before September is over, according to forecasting by SmokyMountains.com, a travel brand dedicated to promoting the Smoky Mountain region that produces a fall foliage map every year. They use historical temperature and precipitation data, forecasted temperature and precipitation, the types of trees known to be in the area, and user-reported information to develop their fall foliage forecast. While it can be difficult to be totally accurate, the map does offer insight into how soon the autumn colors will peak.
The interactive map, seen below, shows that generally, only the most northern counties in the U.S. could see trees changing during the second week of September (though that process has already started in some areas). By the following week, nearly all of Michigan and the Northeast will see fall colors setting in.
Use the sliding button below the map to look at the forecasted conditions for each week.
As October begins, trees in more than half of the country should be changing colors, regardless of whether they’re dull or vibrant colors.
Then, by the end of October, it will all be over. So enjoy it while you can.
