A sixth of Conservative voters may die before the public are next called to the polls because of the party’s older demographic, analysis claims.
Focaldata has found voters are now more likely to vote blue when they turn 64, compared to 42 in 2019, as the party leans on support from the older generations.
In the last five years, one in ten of voters who backed Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party have already died.
Analysis by The Times using Office for National Statistics population estimates suggests this trend will accelerate during this parliament.
The stats suggest 1.2m Tory supporters will have died by 2029, which is 17% of the party’s vote share.
In comparison, only 500,000 Labour voters – or 5.3% – are expected to die in the same period, because the party has been attracting younger supporters.
It does not consider how voters tend to shift to the Conservatives as they age, although this is a trend that is changing with younger generations.
Keir Starmer’s party is also expected to scoop up the backing of 800,000 young people who become legally able to vote over the next five years too, compared to just 160,000 for the Conservatives.
Support among new voters would most likely be further amplified if Labour grant the vote to 16 and 17-year-olds.
This all spells greater danger for the Tories, already heavily wounded from the general election, as it means they could lose a million votes over the next parliament while Labour gain 300,000.
If these votes were translated into seats, Labour could even end up winning 29 new MPs and the Tories losing 34.
Meanwhile, an exclusive Savanta poll for The Mirror has found voters are more likely to remember all the negative events which occurred under the Tories than any of their successes from the last 14 years.
A whopping 43% will mostly recall Brexit, while 41% will remember lockdown breaches in Downing Street known as partygate and 33% will think of Boris Johnson’s struggles to cope with the pandemic.
Just under a third (31%) will recall Liz Truss’s mini-Budget and more than one in five (27%) will remember the now-ditched Rwanda scheme.
Just 8% said they would remember the Tories’ 14 years for the London 2012 Olympics and legalising same-sex marriage.
Meanwhile, 42% of respondents said Rishi Sunak will be most remembered for overseeing his party’s disastrous results at the general election.
It comes as the party starts to consider who may replace Sunak as the party leader.
