Nigel Farage MP, leader of the Reform UK party, has been credited with splitting the traditional Conservative voteMost Reform voters would not have otherwise backed the Conservatives, according to a new poll.
More in Common think tank and the UCL Policy Lab found that only 31% of those who backed Nigel Farage’s populist party said they would have backed the Tories – the rest said they would have backed other parties.
Roughly four million voters backed Reform.
But, this stat suggests the Tories would still have secured fewer than 200 parliament seats – which is a long way off a majority – even if the two parties joined forces.
The findings therefore debunk claims the Reform UK party is mainly to blame for the poor Tory result.
The survey comes less than a week after nearly half of all Tory members said they would support a merger with Reform.
To make matters worse, the same poll found ex-Tory voters who backed Reform at this election were the least likely to ever return to the Conservative fold.
More in Common also found nearly one in five of those who did vote Conservative thought about backing the centrist Liberal Democrats – and so may be repelled away from the party if it swings right.
But it was not just the rapid rise of Farage’s party which hurt the Tories.
Voter turnout at the election was the lowest since universal suffrage – and most of the non-voters were those who voted Tory in 2019.
In fact, 77% of them said it was the first time they had not voted.
Seven in ten voters overall also claimed the Tories lost because they were incompetent – not because the party was too far on either side of the political spectrum.
More In Common director, Luke Tryl, said: “For the Conservatives, the challenge will be avoiding the easy but flawed thinking that if only they had out-flanked Reform UK they could have won the election.
“This research suggests there are limited gains for a new leader who focuses solely on ‘uniting the right’ and instead shows that above all, voters will only return to the Conservative fold if the party can once again restore its reputation for competence.”
Conservative Party leader Rishi SunakThe same polling concluded that this election was fought on the health service, with 63% of the public – including those who did not back Labour at the polls – planning to judge this government on how much they bring down NHS waiting lists.
But fixing the NHS was not the most popular attribute for what makes a strong leader among the respondents.
The survey found 96% want political leaders to “show respect for ordinary people” – and 74% believe the UK is rigged to serve the rich and influential.
By a small margin of 52% to 48%, most voters believe Starmer can represent change.
Starmer secured a huge 410-seat majority in the Commons, Labour won on a relatively low vote share, which could prove tricky for the government.
As Professor Marc Stears, Director of UCL Policy Lab, said: “Labour can hold together its striking new electoral coalition if it makes a real difference to people’s everyday lives and if it shows them the respect they have craved for so long.
“If it doesn’t, then the coalition will fracture still further and the extremes could pick up the pieces.”
