Jerod Mayo was the hand picked heir to Bill Belichick. When New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft fired his six-time Super Bowl winning head coach last winter, he didn’t have to go through an official job search; he’d already filed his succession plan with NFL officials.
This made sense. Seeds from Belichick’s coaching tree found almost exclusively salted ground. But former players had done well in limited reps, including Mike Vrabel and Kevin O’Connell. Mayo was both — an All-Pro who spent eight seasons in New England on the field and five as Belichick’s defensive disciple as a linebackers coach.
In the end, this endorsement failed to mean much of anything. Less than an hour after the final post-game press conference of New England’s 2024 NFL season, Mayo was fired.
Statement from Patriots Chairman and CEO Robert Kraft: https://t.co/2YgHtzzBHK pic.twitter.com/GMXGgd768x
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) January 5, 2025
“After the game today, I informed Jerod Mayo that he will not be returning as the head coach of the New England Patriots in 2025,” wrote Kraft in an official statement. “For me, personally, this was one of the hardest decisions I have ever made. I have known Jerod for 17 years. He earned my respect and admiration as a rookie in 2008 and throughout his career for his play on the field, his leadership in the locker room and the way he conducted himself in our community.
“When he joined our coaching staff, his leadership was even more evident, as I saw how the players responded to him. When other teams started requesting to interview him, I feared I would lose him and committed to making him our next head coach. Winning our season-opener on the road at Cincinnati only strengthened my convictions. Unfortunately, the trajectory of our team’s performances throughout the season did not ascend as I had hoped.”
This was a harsh outcome in a harsh league. Mayo was handed the keys to one of the league’s least talented rosters and managed as many wins (four) as Belichick had in his finale. But instead of getting a chance to prove he could learn from 2024’s mistakes, he’s headed elsewhere, likely to settle into a defensive assistant role either at the pro or college level.
Was it the right call?
Mayo’s 2024 has to be graded on a steep curve. His quarterbacks were stuck playing behind a bottom-three offensive line that never gelled amidst a litany of turnover and injuries. Drake Maye shined in stretches, but his rookie mistakes were amplified by a defense that left little room for error and a run game that couldn’t carry the offense when it needed the most help.
Let’s talk about that defense. This was supposed to be Mayo’s strength. He knew Belichick’s mind on the field and in the playbook. But while the legendary coach turned chicken crap into chicken salad to wrap up 2023, Mayo was incapable of doing the same.
Here’s where the Patriots finished Belichick’s final season over the second half when it comes to expected points added (EPA) allowed:
via rbsdm.com and the author.
Even without Christian Gonzalez in the lineup, no team in the league was better at shutting down opponents. Now here’s how it looks with Gonzalez but without Matthew Judon under Mayo’s guidance.
via rbsdm.com and the author.
Anytime you’re left lording over the Panthers and Jaguars and no one else, it’s safe to say things have gone terribly wrong. But that’s where Mayo’s defense wound up. The Patriots gave up 30-plus points six times in 2024. The last time that happened was 2018, when a solid offense was enough to overcome any defensive lapses en route to the franchise’s last Super Bowl win.
Mayo’s offense was no where near that level, even with Maye slinging beautiful deep balls and escaping pressure for big gains. The scoring offense improved from 31st in 30th in the NFL. For the fifth straight season, dating back to Julian Edelman’s retirement, no New England player had more than 850 receiving yards.
There were few signs of meaningful improvement and Mayo was stuck staring down a ticking clock. The Patriots’ needed a quick turnaround to maximize the inexpensive years of Maye’s rookie contract and spark a playoff run. But they also needed to maximize the final years of team owner Robert Kraft’s presence.
Kraft is 83 years old. He cares deeply about his football legacy, if reports about his Hall of Fame lobbying are correct. He knows the kind of relevance abyss the Patriots can sink into because that’s precisely where the franchise was when he purchased it in 1994. New England had won 19 games the previous five seasons leading up to the sale.
Kraft may have been willing to be patient if he saw signs that suggested a turnaround. Instead, he was given a caged bird. He knew Maye could be the quarterback who cements his legacy and understood the system around him could ultimately prevent him from flying.
So the respected team owner made a snap decision. The signs weren’t there. Mayo made mistakes. He lacked the diplomacy of other head coaches, occasionally shifting blame to his players or coordinators even if it wasn’t his intention. He struggled with clock management and playcalling and generally looked overwhelmed. These were problems that could be fixed, but if not it threatened to taint the end of Kraft’s life with repeated, frustrating failures.
That portended doom for Mayo. Maybe he could have earned a second season with a younger owner unfamiliar with the dizzying highs the Patriots once knew on an annual basis. But that’s not Kraft. When it turned out New England couldn’t even tank right, the decision was made.
Mayo’s firing may not have been fair, but it was justified. Now the Patriots get to sell a chance to work with Maye and a good chunk of salary cap space (but not the top overall pick in this year’s draft) to 2025’s hottest coaching candidates. But whomever takes the job has to know he’s working with a short leash unless he can further Kraft’s legacy.
