Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold is one of the favorites to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year this season. He was the exact type of player the AP was trying to prevent winning the award when it released updated guidelines in June after Joe Flacco won it last year.
AP senior writer Rob Maaddi, via NBC Sports:
“The spirit of the AP Comeback Player of the Year Award is to honor a player who has demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury or other circumstances that led him to miss playing time the previous season.”
That verbiage would seem to disqualify someone from winning after coming back from nothing more than being a backup and not playing, which is Darnold’s exact situation. Yet, Darnold has attracted more bets than any player to win the award at BetMGM (12.5% of tickets) and his odds have shortened to +115 entering the final week of the season, making him the second favorite behind Joe Burrow (-175).
So, are people wasting their money betting on the former first-round pick? Not exactly. ProFootballTalk’s Mike Florio, who has a vote for the award, reported Wednesday the AP won’t reject votes for Darnold as it has with ineligible votes in the past. Additionally, Florio argued the “other circumstances” in those guidelines fit Darnold, because he was drafted by one dysfunctional team, traded to another and labeled as not good because of his time with those teams.
“Darnold didn’t play in 2023 with the 49ers due to the fact that he was regarded as not good enough to start, based on his time with the Jets and Panthers. If that’s not ‘other circumstances,’ what is?,” Florio wrote in December.
#Vikings QB Sam Darnold probably would’ve been a candidate for the Comeback Player of the Year award before the AP issued guidance to voters before the season, instructing them that “the spirit of the award is to honor a player who has demonstrated resilience in the face of…
— Rob Maaddi (@RobMaaddi) October 11, 2024
Darnold bettors clearly agree, but Maaddi made it clear in October the quarterback’s circumstances don’t meet the spirit of the award, tweeting that Darnold “would’ve been a candidate” before the new guidance to voters. That little nudge could be enough to push undecided voters towards a player who actually is coming back from injury, like Burrow, and leave Darnold short of the votes he needs to win.
With the season Burrow is having, it’s also possible he may run away with the award regardless of the guidelines — he’s attracted more money on the award than any player at BetMGM (30.4%). However, Darnold’s surging odds show there’s more than enough people who feel he’s also deserving. Where voters ultimately land between the two could dictate how bettors approach this award in the future.
