Jacksonville is having the kind of season more akin to Urban Meyer than Doug Pederson. While that will resign the former Super Bowl winner to the same fate as his predecessor — there’s almost no chance Pederson keeps his job this winter — the optimism that followed Meyer’s departure won’t linger in 2025.
Meyer’s toxic influence was undeniable, denting the growth of then-rookie Trevor Lawrence. Between the allure of pairing him with a coach who made Nick by-god Foles a Super Bowl MVP and the promise of two incoming first round draft picks, it was easy to see how the Jaguars could return to… well, not glory, but a comfortable spot toward the back of the AFC playoff race.
Those hopes have faded. Lawrence has shrunk from Pro Bowl status, struggling through 2024 before an injury cut his season short after 10 games and a 2-8 record. No defense in the NFL has been worse. Jacksonville has given up more yards than anyone else and its 0.275 expected points added (EPA) allowed per opponent dropback is the league’s worst mark since 2020.
via rbsdm.com and the author.
For reference, Lamar Jackson’s EPA/dropback this season is 0.262. This is all very bad. But silver linings exist at the edges of this swirling funnel of garbage. Let’s start with the most obvious one.
Brian Thomas Jr. is the WR1 for which Jacksonville has been searching.
Mac Jones to Brian Thomas Jr.
: #NYJvsJAX on FOX
: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/rhOQ1nSu8T— NFL (@NFL) December 15, 2024
The fact Thomas is able to thrive with Mac Jones as his quarterback is remarkable. Jones is operating with a better top wideout than he ever had in New England, but in his first seven games as a Jaguar he’s thrown 16 deep balls and completed five of them. All to opposing players.
SAUCE. His first INT of the season seals the win!#NYJvsJAX pic.twitter.com/PE3g4GLiN0
— NFL (@NFL) December 15, 2024
He is, in his soul, a passer with the kind of lack of awareness to give up seven yards on second-and-goal instead of simply throwing the ball away.
lol Mac Jones pic.twitter.com/EvRjeygx5f
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) December 15, 2024
Thomas’s ability to create separation is a facet in both phases of his passing game. He can accelerate through press coverage. He can snap off off-coverage with shifty lateral movement and clean routes. Once the ball is secure, he has the vision to maximize gains:
Jags retake the lead on the Mac Jones and BTJ connection!
: #NYJvsJAX on FOX
: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/Vxjs8GVR41— NFL (@NFL) December 15, 2024
The rookie’s 6.5 yards after catch are tied for the team lead with Travis Etienne — who is, notably, a running back. Statistically, that puts him in line with Ja’Marr Chase, Nico Collins and Puka Nacua when it comes to generating yards. That’s a boon for any quarterback, and on Sunday it led to 78 of Thomas’s 105 receiving yards — more than a quarter of Jones’s total output.
via nextgenstats.nfl.com
Thomas is a building block for the future. So is Travon Walker.
Walker didn’t hear his name called often in a terrible performance from the Jacksonville defense. He got to stare down a 41-year-old quarterback with fading mobility and led a pass rush that only sacked him once and hit him three times.
But Walker still finished the game with a tackle for loss. While it wasn’t his best showing, it fits into his portfolio as a growing force amidst a lost defense.
Walker has been asked to attack the quarterback more than ever in his career (from 85 percent to 97 percent this fall). He’s responded with 8.5 sacks in 14 games, allowing the opportunity to top last year’s 10-sack breakthrough. There’s been a bit of luck involved there — his time to sack is down from 4.8 seconds to 4.3 as Josh Hines-Allen has helped push quarterbacks in his direction — but his 44 pressures rank 21st in the NFL this fall.
The Jaguars knew who their stars were coming into 2024 thanks to Lawrence, Etienne and Hines-Allen. They didn’t know if Thomas Jr., the fourth receiver selected in this year’s draft could join them. They hoped Walker could sustain his 2023 growth after a disappointing rookie campaign that followed Jacksonville selecting him over budding superstar Aidan Hutchinson. Neither player has been able to maximize his potential in a disheveled mess of a season, but each has shown the capability to be a cornerstone for a winning team.
That’s what the Jaguars 2025 coaching hire will walk into. He’ll have a blue chip quarterback who may never reach his potential. He’ll have a running back who has averaged fewer than four yards per carry this fall. He’ll have a middling offensive line and arguably the league’s worst secondary.
https://twitter.com/LaurieFitzptrck/status/1868383303717487066
He’ll also have a pair of young almost-stars in Thomas and Walker. They have the capability to be great, a quality the Jaguars have built a proud traditional of squandering. If a turnaround is going to happen in Florida, it’ll depend on these two players emerging as the best versions of themselves.
We saw what that looks like for Thomas in Week 15, albeit in a loss. But if you’re looking to sell a team to a rising head coaching prospect, there are worse places to start than “you get to revive Trevor Lawrence’s career with the kind of wideout who can make him immediately better.”
