This week, our merry band of Betting Life experts — Matthew Freedman, Matt LaMarca, and Geoff Ulrich — pick their favorite upsets, predict this season’s NFL passing yards leader, assess the Pats with Drake Maye under center… and more!
Pull up a chair, pour yourself a bowl of your favorite sugary monster-themed cereal, and join us on a light jog through all of this week’s NFL action.
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Matthew Freedman: Raiders (+3 vs. Steelers).I have the Steelers power rated at zero points on a neutral field, so they’re the definition of a mediocre team. That kind of team shouldn’t be laying this many points away from home, especially when you consider that HC Mike Tomlin’s teams have historically disappointed in this spot, going 33-41-2 ATS (-11.3% ROI) as road favorites and 24-35-1 ATS (-18.3% ROI) when favored by at least a field goal as visitors.
LaMarca: Giants (+3.5 vs. Bengals). This is shaping up to be a classic “sharps vs. squares” spot. The public undoubtedly will be on the Bengals, who have played outstanding offensively since getting Tee Higgins back in the lineup. However, the early sharp money is on the Giants. As good as the Bengals’ offense is, their defense is just as poor. The Giants are coming off 420 yards last week vs. the Seahawks. They should be able to at least keep up offensively and keep this game competitive, so I’ll take the +3.5. It should surprise no one if the Giants win the game outright.
Ulrich: Broncos (+3.0 vs. Chargers). These two teams are like the Spider-Man meme, because on paper they look like mirror images. They both have great defenses ranked top five in EPA per play, but the Broncos have been more battle-tested. Both teams are averaging fewer than 15 first downs a game, under 6.5 yards per pass attempt on offense, are bottom 10 in EPA per play on offense, and have veteran head coaches. Justin Herbert gives the Chargers the edge under center but Bo Nix is playing better and is more mobile. The Broncos getting 3 points at home just seems like too much for a pair of teams this close in talent and scheme.
More upset picks can be found in our NFL betting model for Week 6.
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Matthew Freedman: Broncos-Chargers Under 35.5. Chargers unders are 4-0, and on average their games have fallen short of the market total — by a full 10 points. The Chargers’ defense is No. 2 in EPA (-0.185)… tied with the Broncos’ defense (-0.185). Justin Herbert (-2.5 yards) and Bo Nix (-2) are both bottom-12 in average yards to the sticks with their pass attempts. Neither QB is looking to push the ball down the field. And the Chargers rank No. 2 with a 53.0% rush rate, so they’re not looking to throw the ball much anyway. And then you add all that on top of the fact that we have a warm-weather team traveling to play a divisional game outdoors at elevation in the mountains in the middle of October — the under just screams to be bet.
Matt LaMarca: Ravens -6.5 vs. Commanders. No team has made a bigger move up my power ratings than the Commanders. They’re 100% for real, especially on the offensive side of the ball. They’re very live to win the NFC East, and a playoff spot is well within reach. Still, they’re not in the Ravens’ weight class. Baltimore is a great team offensively and defensively. They’re the No. 1 squad in my power ratings at the moment, despite the fact that they’re just 3-2 overall. This is easily the Commanders’ biggest test of the season, so it feels like the perfect opportunity to sell high.
Geoff Ulrich: Najee Harris anytime TD (+125; DraftKings). I don’t trust Pittsburgh to cover a full FG on the road this week, so I’ll get my Steelers exposure via proxy with what I think is a mispriced line on a Najee Harris anytime TD. The Raiders have allowed a TD to an RB in every single game they have played this season and Harris — who scored eight TDs last year — is leading the league in most touches without a TD this season. Cordarrelle Patterson has already been ruled out for Week 6 and Jaylen Warren is doubtful, so Harris is likely to handle all of the red zone work again against a defense that is 28th in EPA against the run. I’d play this one down to +100 and expect his odds to shrink as we get closer to kickoff.
You can find more of our NFL free bets in our bet tracker as well.
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Freedman: My brain doesn’t think in terms of storylines. It thinks only in terms of numbers. Pure, untouched, unadulterated numbers. But if I did need to come up with an underrated storyline it might be the mediocrity of the NFL’s upper middle class teams. The Cowboys, Eagles, Bengals, Texans, and Jets all entered the campaign with Super Bowl aspirations, and all of them have underwhelmed, which means that right now it looks like we have maybe only seven teams capable of winning a championship — and that’s a small number.
LaMarca: I’m tempted to go with the soap opera that is the New York Jets, but I’m going to go with the defending champs instead. The Chiefs are sitting at 5-0, so everything appears fine on the surface. However, I’m worried about their pass-catching corps. If Rashee Rice is unable to come back, it leaves a gaping hole from last year’s championship roster. He emerged as the team’s clear No. 1 receiver down the stretch, and the early indications are that Xavier Worthy is not going to have the same type of breakout. Can this team really win another ring with Worthy, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Justin Watson as their top receivers? Unless they make an upgrade at the trade deadline, I’m not sure this team has the same ceiling it’s had in years past.
Ulrich: The fact Deshaun Watson is still a starting QB in the NFL. The stats are staggeringly bad. He’s been under 200 yards in five straight games, which for a player who led the league in passing just four years ago (and is still under 30 years of age) is almost impossible to comprehend. Watson is also dead last in yards per attempt, has been sacked the most of any QB (26 times), and posted a QBR under 10.0 against Washington — this was the third time he’s “accomplished that feat” in the 17 games he’s started with Cleveland. He’s not playing well enough to be a backup, which begs the question as to why Cleveland continues to trot him out.
Freedman: It probably doesn’t even matter.
LaMarca: Either Bill Belichick or Grimace.
Ulrich: Either Ben Johnson or Grimace.
Freedman: Dak Prescott. Cowboys can’t run.
LaMarca: Bengals’ defense points toward Burrow.
Ulrich: Geno. Seattle letting him cook.
Freedman: Nothing. The OL still sucks.
LaMarca: He should focus on surviving.
Ulrich: Make it worse, then better.
Freedman: Falcons play Panthers … so Falcons.
LaMarca: People are still alive? Eagles.
Ulrich: Texans. Not gonna be Maye.
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