The Minnesota Lynx punched their ticket to the WNBA Finals Tuesday night with a win over the Connecticut Sun, setting the stage for what should be a fun series against the New York Liberty.
Minnesota and New York were the two best teams all season, and both would represent a new WNBA champion after the Liberty eliminated the reigning champion Las Vegas Aces in their semifinal series.
The Liberty, who were runners-up in last year’s finals, are -275 favorites at BetMGM to prevail this time around. They certainly have a few things going for them ahead of Game 1 Thursday.
Because the Liberty were able to vanquish the Aces in four games, they’ll have been off for three days before the finals tip off. Which gives them a huge rest advantage over Minnesota with just one day between games.
Additionally, New York has the edge in star power and experience, with six returning players from last year’s finals rotation, including four with an All-WNBA on their resume and two with MVPs.
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All that said, the time to bet on the Liberty to win the finals has long past. They’ve been favored throughout the postseason, and those odds have shortened past the point of good value. Any bet on a straight-up winner today has to be on the Lynx (+220), who have a case beyond the simple value of their odds.
Minnesota dominated this series during the regular season, taking three of four games against the Liberty — including the Commissioner’s Cup championship — with an average winning margin of about 10 points. The Lynx averaged just over 88 points in those wins, which is well above the 76.5-point average New York allowed to opponents this season.
That scoring came from a team that hangs its hat on how well it plays defense — Minnesota had the W’s second-best defensive rating this season behind Connecticut. If that regular-season success translates to the finals, the Liberty are going to have their hands full.
If you’re not convinced the Lynx can win this series, here is where you can find your value on betting the Liberty. The shortest odds you’ll find in this market are +290 on a Liberty sweep.
Because of everything stated in the previous section, I don’t think a sweep is likely to happen, so I’d avoid that trap. Minnesota plays New York incredibly tough and MVP runner-up Napheesa Collier is playing too well. But there is a good chance New York ends it in four.
Minnesota’s defense hasn’t been nearly as good in the playoffs as it was in the regular season, as the Lynx are allowing more than 11 points per 100 possessions more. The gap is even larger on the road, where Minnesota begins this series. Not to mention, the Liberty are by far the best offense they’ll have played.
That leaves the best value on a 3-1 Liberty victory at +310. New York likely wins its first two games at home before dropping Game 3 in Minnesota and bouncing back to close the series the next game. The next best odds are the Liberty to win in five at +300.
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This question is a lot harder for New York than it is for Minnesota. If the Lynx win the series, Collier is the MVP. Her +240 odds at BetMGM are third-best behind the two players most likely to win for the Liberty: Breanna Stewart (+115) and Sabrina Ionescu (+210).
I would also throw Jonquel Jones at +3500 into the mix for New York, because she could play a role in both scoring and neutralizing Collier.
Ultimately, though, I do think the best value is on the favorite, Stewart. She’s the one player Minnesota doesn’t have a defensive answer for, as we saw in the last meeting between these teams when she dropped 38 points to go with 18 rebounds.
