I wouldn’t call it a wise move to bet on Bo Nix to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year for the 2024 season.
When you’re the sixth quarterback off the board in a draft where three quarterbacks were selected with the first three picks and five in the top 10, your chance of usurping the others as the best in your class probably aren’t great. That’s before we get around to the three incredible receivers drafted before Nix.
But I’d be lying if I said I didn’t understand the appeal in betting Nix, which only increased after he had another strong preseason showing Sunday against the Packers.
Bo Nix could not have looked more comfortable on this drive for the Broncos. We're seeing it all from him out there pic.twitter.com/f8KgIWNSVx
— Football Digest (@FoootballDigest) August 19, 2024
To start, the Denver Broncos rookie almost certainly locked up the team’s starting job with his preseason play, which already gives him an edge over at least two and maybe three of his classmates who won’t see the field. J.J. McCarthy was ruled out for the season after knee surgery. Michael Penix Jr. (+6600) is stuck behind Kirk Cousins for the foreseeable future. And Drake Maye (+3500) is backing up Jacoby Brissett for the time being.
That leaves Caleb Williams (+140) and Jayden Daniels (+500) as the most immediate competition at QB, and both have much shorter odds than Nix at +1200.
Considering they’re all rookies likely to deal with some type of growing pains, you could see how someone might talk themselves into seeing value in Nix’s longer odds… and plenty do.
At BetMGM, 13.9% of tickets have Nix winning OROY, which is second most behind Marvin Harrison Jr. (+750) at 17.8%. And with the fourth-most money wagered on Nix, he’s the sportsbook’s biggest liability for the award. His odds have seen some of the most movement, dropping from +1700 before the preseason.
Bo Nix's odds to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year at #BetMGM
+1700: Before NFL Preseason Week 1
+1200: After
Nix finished 15-of-21 for 125 yards, 1 TD and 102.3 passer rating in his first game. pic.twitter.com/ft4oSji97j
— John Ewing (@johnewing) August 14, 2024
Now is when we get to the obvious flaw in the logic of betting Nix: not all situations are created equally.
Even if we’re to assume Nix is as good as Williams and Daniels (which we shouldn’t), his teammates aren’t. Especially in the case of Chicago, which has one of the best supporting casts around a rookie we’ve ever seen.
I could maybe see the value in betting Nix over Daniels, whose supporting cast in Washington isn’t dramatically different than what’s in Denver. But if I’m looking for a bet outside of the favored Williams, I’m much more inclined to take a swing on one of the receivers. Harrison is the best in a draft full of good ones, and he has a quarterback capable of getting him the ball a lot. Not to mention, Arizona’s defense will make it almost necessary they sling it around on offense.
You also have players like Xavier Worthy (+1800), who’s a perfect fit on the Chiefs and has Patrick Mahomes throwing him the ball, and Keon Coleman (+3000), who gets to catch balls from Josh Allen.
For all his apparent upside, Nix is still just a rookie QB on a rebuilding team playing in a division with some tough defenses. Which will make it tough for him to sustain the level of play we’ve seen this preseason. It’s not hard to see why people like his odds so much, but I’d be looking to find value somewhere else.
