It’s been three years since Aaron Rodgers was last an All-Pro quarterback. In the time since that 2021 MVP campaign, he’s led an 8-9 team that missed the playoffs, tore an Achilles and became known more for his conspiracy brain than anything on the field.
Oh, and he turned 40 years old.
Despite all that, Rodgers is still the player on which the New York Jets’ dreams of snapping a 13-year playoff drought rests. The reason they either succeed or remain the same sad operation they’ve always been. And with the way the AFC East shook out over the last year, there’s more reason for optimism than not.
Because of that, plenty of eyes will again follow the Jets to see what happens. At +180 odds, New York is the NFL’s second most-bet division winner at BetMGM and by far the biggest liability to win the AFC East, attracting 82.9% of the handle.
Another season-ending injury would be devastating.
The Buffalo Bills are favored to win the East at +165, but it’s hard to believe that’s tied to anything other than Josh Allen being the best quarterback in the division. His supporting cast — on both sides of the ball — is lacking maybe as much as it ever has in the four years since his turn into an elite player.
The Bills have an almost entirely new wide receiver room Allen has to build chemistry with, and the defense is almost certain to take a step back too after the departure of several starters. After a season that required Buffalo to win its final five games to make the playoffs, the door is open for someone to snap the team’s streak of four straight division titles.
That doesn’t necessarily mean it’ll be the Jets. The Miami Dolphins are a solid bet to get it done at +210 if only they can stop collapsing down the stretch of every season. Though Mike McDaniel has led them to the playoffs in each of his first two seasons as head coach, the Dolphins are a combined 16-6 through November the last two seasons but just 4-10 after December, including two first-round playoff losses.
I do expect another explosive offensive year from Tua Tagovailoa and company, but the questions that remain on defense is why it’s hard not to come back to the Jets in all this.
New York doesn’t need Rodgers to lead an explosive offense. He only needs to be a high-level game manager for the Jets to win games behind what projects to again be one of the league’s best defenses. Especially with the way his mere presence should open things up for Breece Hall in the run game. It’s risky relying on a player who turns 41 in December to stay healthy, but the addition of backup Tyrod Taylor gives me more confidence the Jets can stay on track if Rodgers has to miss a few games.
The New England Patriots won’t factor into the division race just yet, as they transition into the Drake Maye era. But if the rookie can blossom into a franchise quarterback sooner than later, this could end up as the last year the Jets and Dolphins can go after the East before having to worry about the Pats again.
