Germany might actually have the best shot, not Canada.
Before the men’s basketball tournament began, we viewed Team USA as the clear favorite to win gold at the 2024 Paris Olympics.
After three games played by each nation and four teams (including Spain and South Sudan) now eliminated, what has changed across the landscape during group play?
All things considered, there aren’t a lot of surprises so far. Team USA (especially Kevin Durant!) still looks outstanding, Team Canada is playing well, and Nikola Jokic is doing Nikola Jokic things for Team Serbia.
We took a look at where each team stands before the quarterfinals begin.
All stats are courtesy of FIBA unless noted otherwise.
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IMPLIED PROBABILITY: 86.7 percent
Team USA is absolutely loaded with talent and has far more offensive potential than any other competitor by a wide margin. They averaged 10.0 more points per game than any other nation during group play, earning the No. 1 overall seed with impressive play on both sides of the ball. There isn’t really a weak link on this team, even though not everyone has yet played up to their full potential.
MORE: Meet the Team USA men’s basketball roster for the 2024 Paris Olympics
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IMPLIED PROBABILITY: 10.0 percent
Germany is playing a brilliant brand of basketball, recording the fewest turnovers per game (10.0) of any nation during group play. They had the best point differential (+47) of any team during group play except Team USA. Per Synergy, their pick-and-roll heavy half-court offense (1.13 PPP) is the most efficient of any team on the men’s side inn the Olympics. They look good on defense, too, allowing the fewest points per game (73.3) of any team in the tournament.
MORE: Meet the FIBA World Cup champions who can win at the 2024 Paris Olympics
fiba.basketball
IMPLIED PROBABILITY: 10.0 percent
Although originally considered the biggest threat to the United States, it’s possible Germany has earned that title a bit more during the tournament so far. Canada looks good, though, especially behind the isolation-heavy offense of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. This team is also getting some strong play from RJ Barrett as well as Luguentz Dort and Dillon Brooks. But their overall point differential (+20) is still relatively low.
MORE: Meet the biggest threat to Team USA at the 2024 Paris Olympics
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IMPLIED PROBABILITY: 4.8 percent
Led by Nikola Jokic, arguably the best player on the men’s side during the Olympics so far, this team has a real shot. Serbia does well on the glass, averaging more rebounds per game (42.0) than any other nation remaining in the tournament. Serbia also shares the ball very well, averaging more assists per game (25.7) than every other nation except for just Team USA during group play.
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IMPLIED PROBABILITY: 2.9 percent
To no surprise considering the size of their big men with Victor Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert, no team has more blocks per game (6.3) than France. Including passes, per Synergy, this team has the most post-ups per game of any men’s team in the Olympics. But it isn’t quite working out to their advantage as better guard play would go a long way.
MORE: Meet the basketball host nation with a chance to medal at the 2024 Paris Olympics
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IMPLIED PROBABILITY: 2.4 percent
Greece has the overall leading scorer of the tournament with Giannis Antetokounmpo, but otherwise, this team lacks the depth needed to advance any further in this tournament. They generated the most catch-and-shoot jumpers of any men’s team during group play, per Synergy. But they had the lowest points per game of any nation that advanced and the second-lowest of any team during group play.
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IMPLIED PROBABILITY: 2.4 percent
One of the most pleasantly surprising players during the men’s tournament in the Olympics so far is Jock Landale. The Houston Rockets big man averaged 17.7 points and 9.7 rebounds during group play. Otherwise, however, it hasn’t been a great tournament for Australia. Their transition defense has struggled tremendously and they’re not getting much help from the rest of the roster.
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IMPLIED PROBABILITY: 0.4 percent
Brazil plays a fun brand of basketball, leading the tournament shooting 45.3 percent on 3-pointers thus far. They’re creating well on jumpers off the dribble, which makes them a threat to get hot. Unfortunately, however, Brazil led all nations with 17.3 turnovers per game during group play. They’ve also had a lot of defensive shortcomings.
