According to the conventional wisdom of the chattering class, Donald Trump’s selection of JD Vance for vice president has been an abject disaster that has the former president doubting his instincts. But the story on the campaign trail looks a little different, and the GOP may be forging a new funding base.
In conversations with voters around nine states over the past few weeks since the announcement, I have found a few surprises, including that Vance was not the first choice of almost any of the Republicans and independents I spoke with.
This, notwithstanding the fact that among the very online, hard core supporters of Trump, Vance was enormously popular and very much the first choice. However, even though he might not have been their favorite, right-leaning voters appear wildly supportive of the pick.
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At the Carroll County Fair last weekend in Maryland, I heard the words, "steady," and "honorable man" from a pair of guys I talked to. Among men in particular, Vance has an understated personal style and qualities that they admire.
At this week’s Harrisburg, Pa., Trump rally, Rich told me that he had wanted North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum to get the nod, something I frankly heard more than I expected. "But I like Vance, he told me, "I think he really would be ready on day one."
Outside having a cigarette, I met a gaggle of fellas including Joe, who said he liked both Vance and Trump for a similar reason, "My dad always told me," he slightly drawled, "to run the country right you need a businessman or a farmer," so Vance’s experience in venture capital appeals to him.
And there is another way that Vance might be changing the traditional boundaries of the Republican Party. This week he was back in Silicon Valley to host a fundraiser tapping big tech bucks.
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This, just a day after former Paypal executive David Marcus, no relation to myself, penned an eloquent post on X saying he had "crossed the Rubicon" and is now supporting Donald Trump. Marcus had in past years raised no shortage of dough for Democrats.
This might not yet be a sea change, but there is significant political movement in big tech, with Elon Musk, David Sacks and others warming to the GOP significantly, amid concerns of censorship and regulation.
Vance is by no means single-handedly responsible for this change, but of all the prospective V.P. nominees, he, as a former venture capitalist, had the closest ties to the big tech industry.
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Time will have to tell what major impact, if any, Vance’s selection by Trump has on the final results in November, but from my perspective on the ground and looking at how the money is flowing, reports of it being a disastrous mistake seem way too early to be believed.
Among GOP convention goers in Milwaukee there was a sense that the Vance pick showed a lot of confidence coming just days after the assassination attempt that some believed had profoundly shifted the race in favor of Trump.
But less than a week after Vance was selected, Biden dropped out, changing everything about the 2024 race, tightening some of the polls and just leading to a general sense that this thing is still very close.
Among the most telling conversations I had with voters about Vance were in Toledo and Youngstown in his home state of Ohio. Honestly, even his constituents knew more about his book Hillbilly Elegy and the subsequent hit movie than they did about his policies.
That can go both ways, even as the left tries to paint Vance as "weird," for his past statements about cat ladies and such. There is still time for him to define himself, even to voters who have already sent him to Washington.
To JD Vance, the voters I’m meeting are saying, "there’s a chance." A chance for him to win them over and place himself as the heir apparent to Trumpism. But with months still to go, and Harris’ own VP selection still to be made, it is far too soon to make proclamations or predictions about how Vance might do, and that includes the loud voices calling his selection a disaster.
