Just a week after President Biden abandoned his re-election campaign – and his vice president quickly sewed up the support of the Democratic delegates – a series of polls are beginning to measure the impact of the attempted assassination of former President Trump, the Republican convention – and the impact of the substitution of Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee.
The polls suggest the vice president is in a closer contest with Trump than Biden was. Indeed, according to the Real Clear Politics average, Harris has cut Trump's lead almost in half from 3.1 points when Biden dropped out (47.9 Trump to 44.8 Biden) to 1.7 today (47.9 Trump to 46.2 Harris).
In recent months, I’ve urged folks to focus primarily on Trump’s share in the polls – rather than the difference between the candidates. The mantra has been "Trump will get his number." His larger-than-life political persona is such that each voter has already decided what they think of him (positive or negative). Barring a seismic political event, it’s hard to see what would make anyone change their mind about him.
In the weeks before Biden’s disastrous debate performance, some accused me of spinning for Biden. And, yes, I did think that the bulk of the undecided were traditionally Democratic voters who might not have been ready to commit to Biden (primarily due to his age and lackluster persona) – but that they’d come "home" to the old man by October.
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The Harris campaign has sped up that process. The polls show that many voter groups – notably young people and minorities – have "come home" in July – even before the Democratic convention and her official nomination.
Media coverage of the race has been primarily focused on the unity the Democrats (surprisingly) are showing – and how that will likely result in a particularly effective August convention.
But, I’m sorry, it hasn’t primarily recast the election.
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It’s still about Trump – and whether voters want to see him return to the White House, or opt for Harris and prevent a second Trump term.
And just as before – the best way to analyze the new polls – is to look at the share of the vote that Trump seems to be winning.
(Yes, in the current environment, I suspect folks will see me arguing "Just look at Trump’s number" and think I’m spinning for Trump.)
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As he has for most of the year, Trump is hovering between 45% and 50% of the vote in almost all national polls measuring his strength against a single opponent.
If anything (though it’s not yet statistically significant) several respected recent polls have him creeping up – and show him closer to 50 than to 45.
And remember, the Republican candidate doesn’t need to win the popular vote (which national polls measure) to carry the Electoral College. Given how the Democratic electorate tends to be concentrated in the larger coastal states and urban areas, the Republican candidate can win the 2024 election even while losing the popular vote.
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In two of the three presidential elections that Republicans won this century, they actually lost the national popular vote. In 2020, Trump got less than 47% of the popular vote – and he still came very close to capturing the Electoral College.
The same patterns exists within the battleground states. Most likely, the Democrats need to win all three of the so-called "Blue Wall" states in the "rust belt" – Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Last week’s Fox News polls showed each of them as essentially toss-ups. Pennsylvania and Michigan were tied (49-49) and Wisconsin had Trump up 1 point (50-49).
Trump arguably only needs to win one of them to prevent Harris from hitting 270 in the Electoral College.
The best sign for Harris in the current polling is that her voters appear much more enthusiastic than Biden voters had been. Indeed, the enthusiasm of her supporters is on par with the enthusiasm of Trump voters. In a very close election, with both sides fielding well-funded get-out-the-vote efforts, individual voter enthusiasm can put one candidate over the top.
But the bottom line remains: Trump still is hitting in the high 40s – and until the Democrats figure out how to get him to lose the support he currently has – he’s the advantaged candidate in this election.
