Swing state polls show tightening between Trump and Harris after Biden dropped out and the vice president has become the presumed Democratic nominee.
Most voters in four battleground states approve of President Joe Biden getting out of the presidential race and two-thirds want him to complete his term, according to Fox News statewide surveys in Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The polls include over 1,000 registered voters in each state and were conducted July 22-24 (after Biden dropped out and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris).
The surveys find the horserace between Harris and former President Donald Trump looks a lot like the Biden-Trump race did in April -- extremely close. Harris and Trump are tied in two states (Michigan and Pennsylvania), Trump is ahead by 1 point in Wisconsin, and Harris is up by 6 in Minnesota.
Plus, in each of the four state surveys:
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– Most Democrats want Harris to replace Biden as their party’s presidential nominee.
– Trump is meeting or exceeding his 2020 vote share in the two-way race against Harris.
– Support for Harris in the horserace exceeds Biden’s support in April surveys.*
– Between 93-96% of Democrats back Harris in the head-to-head matchup, and between 92-95% of Republicans support Trump.
– Fewer than one voter in five feels they are "getting ahead" financially, as the largest number say they are "falling behind."
– The economy is the top issue to twice as many voters as the next highest issues, immigration and abortion. All other issues lag those three.
– Trump is preferred over Harris by wide margins among voters prioritizing the economy and immigration. Harris is favored among those saying abortion is their top issue.
– Harris has a higher favorable rating than Trump, except in Michigan where they are tied.
– Biden’s favorable ratings are a bit worse than in April and well below both Harris and Trump.*
– Democratic candidates for the U.S. Senate outperform Harris’ vote share in the horserace.
– Support for third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is lower than it was in April.*
– Three-quarters or more approve of Biden’s decision to end his re-election bid.
– Two-thirds want Biden to finish his term rather than resign.
*No trend comparison available in Minnesota.
See results from the individual state surveys: Michigan here, Minnesota here, Pennsylvania here and Wisconsin here.
The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The battleground surveys were conducted July 22-24, 2024, among registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file in Michigan (1,012), Minnesota (1,071), Pennsylvania (1,034), and Wisconsin (1,046). Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines and cellphones or completed the survey online after receiving a text. Results based on the full sample in each state have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. The sampling error is higher among subgroups. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics are representative of the registered voter population.
Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.
