What effect will President Biden's departure have on down-ballot races.
Switching out President Biden for someone else may not have been so much about getting someone to defeat former President Trump but rather about saving seats down-ballot. In other words, polling has revealed that Harris does not match up much better than Biden. But it may be just enough to salvage seats.
The Senate will be tough to hold. But this strategy may be all about flipping the House. The current breakdown is 220 Republicans to 213 Democrats with two vacancies. Democrats need to change a little more than a handful of those seats to reclaim the House.
Democrats have done nothing but rail against Republicans and how they’ve run the House for a year and a half. Republicans gave them plenty of fodder. They took days to elect former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) as speaker and then dumped him by the fall. The House then consumed 22 days to elect House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) – after burning through three other speaker candidates first. They’ve dealt with various censures and contempt of Congress resolutions, some of which have gone against the wishes of leaders. Democrats have also highlighted the various stunts of Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) and Lauren Boebert (R-CO).
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So, Democrats thought that pandemonium gave them a great chance to win the House. But Biden was nothing but a dead weight. In other words, this maneuver might prove to be more about the House versus the presidency.
The House returns to Capitol Hill tomorrow. And expect a flurry of questions for Democrats about whether they support Vice President Harris to step into the void or someone else.
It’s notable that senior leaders like Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) are not endorsing anyone. They want to see how this plays out and not tip the scale in favor of any individual.
Former House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-SC) salvaged Biden’s presidential bid in 2020 ahead of the South Carolina primary.
He has supported the president staying in the race but shifted his alliance to Harris today.
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The Congressional Black Caucus PAC – not the Congressional Black Caucus – has endorsed Harris. The CBC never put out a statement after Biden’s terrible debate performance in late June. But CBC Chairman Rep. Steve Horsford (D-NV) stood by the president, speaking solely for himself.
But when it comes to Harris, it may be about the math – and the Golden State. Forty House Democrats come from California. That’s 9% of the House Democratic Caucus and about 20% of the House Democratic Conference. Harris was a senator from California. So, it may be hard to overcome that.
It’s also interesting that Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN), who ran against the president, was ostracized by some Democrats to the point that he stepped down from a lower-tier leadership position after he raised questions about the president’s viability. The House Progressive Caucus has now endorsed Harris. Some members of the Squad are now backing Harris: Reps. Ayanna Pressley (D-MA) and Cori Bush (D-MO).
The "New Dems Coalition," which is a bloc of mainstream to moderate Democrats, has also thrown its weight behind Harris. Many of the Democrats calling on Biden to step aside in the early going were New Dems.
This has been a slow wave building against Biden. A senior House Democratic leadership source told Fox News the day after the debate that "this was not sustainable." The source added that those close to the president "have not served him well."
Don’t forget that Schumer met with Biden last Saturday at Rehoboth, Delaware. Schumer put out his statement about that meeting minutes before former President Trump was shot in Pennsylvania on July 13. It was thought that more and more Democrats would have come out last week, trying to push Biden out the door. But the shooting delayed some of that. Otherwise, this conversation may have come several days ago. It never happened because of the shooting.
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Republicans are now starting to question whether Biden is up to serve the remaining months of his term. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) said, "If President Biden is not fit to run for president, he is not fit to serve as president. He must resign the office immediately."
Expect more Republicans to begin calling on Biden to resign. They could also begin to hold hearings and investigations, asking who knew what and when about the president’s cognitive abilities.
Republicans will also target vulnerable Democrats in competitive states and districts, asking what they knew about Biden’s circumstances. And they will also wonder which of those candidates stands behind Harris. For instance, Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) faces a competitive re-election bid, and she backs Harris. Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) also faces a tough race, but he did not endorse Harris.
Republicans will likely fold the president’s departure into their House and Senate campaign strategy this fall.
In hockey, there’s something known as "last change." The visiting team always puts its skaters on the ice first before each new faceoff. That gives the home team a slight advantage to see which line the visitors are putting on the ice – and then determine which players they have to create the best matchup.
This is playing out right now in a similar fashion for the Democrats. Because they are the incumbent party and their party comes second, they have "last change." The GOP has gone with former President Trump and Sen. JD Vance (R-OH). But the Democrats now have an opportunity to put out whoever they think matches up best. It could be Vice President Harris. It could be someone else. It could include someone like Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) or Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D). Or it could be two women. Any combination.
It’s unclear if Democrats might take advantage of this opportunity. But with their convention still a month away, they have "last change."
